Of all of the 100 Derby Point races on the docket these next two weeks, the one with the most importance might be the Blue Grass Stakes. The three favorites in this race have far from enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, and a poor showing here from Zulu, Donegal Moon and Brody's Cause could see them both left out of the Run for the Roses.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Lookin for a Kiss 50/1
2: Donegal Moon 5/1
3: Cherry Wine 12/1
4: Zulu 5/2
5: Crescent Drive 20/1
6: Brody's Cause 6/1
7: Laoban 12/1
8: Twizz 30/1
9: Goats Town 20/1
10: American Dubai 20/1
11: Cards of Stone 20/1
12: Zapperini 30/1
13: Star Hill 10/1
14: My Man Sam 10/1
We mentioned the Kentucky Derby Points at the beginning of this article, and in fact, it isn't just the top dogs of this race who aren't qualified yet.
Laoban might have enough points to get in, but he surely could use at least a fourth place finish here to get 10 more points to get him to 32. The winner and runner-up of this race will immediately be headed to Churchill Downs if they'd like and are Triple Crown nominated, but aside from Laoban, the only horse with any notable point tally is Zulu, who has 20 points to show for his work at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Zulu is clearly the top dog in this field as we see it. He's posted Beyer Speed Ratings of 95, 99 and 99 in his three races. We like the jockey change to Javier Castellano, and we like the move to put blinkers on him as well.
Zulu is a shaky horse in the starting blocks, but he comes out full of fury. The concern is that he could wear himself out, as he never really had that last kick at the Florida Derby, but that's why trainer Todd Pletcher has made this switch to Castellano to try to slow him down in the first couple furlongs.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
The price here on Brody's Cause is too good to ignore. He was a 6 to 1 choice at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for a reason, and we're willing to give him a pass for his run at the Tampa Bay Derby after getting bumped from the start. He never really recovered at that point and finished seventh of the nine horses in the field.
Brody's Cause has fantastic breeding and works out incredibly well. He's got a world class trainer in Dale Romans as well.
It just hasn't come together for him yet, but it only takes one really good run here at the Blue Grass to change his fortunes.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This is a really high stakes race, and we can't see a situation where one of the favorites doesn't get the job done. We haven't even mentioned the highly touted Donegal Moon yet, a horse who won his last race by 13 lengths with a 102 Beyer Speed Rating.
The best horse in this field is Zulu for sure. The best value though, lies with Brody's Cause. That price of 4 to 1 can't be missed, and we think he does have a legitimate chance to head to the winner's circle on Saturday at the Blue Grass.
Horse Racing Odds: Brody's Cause +400
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