Two-year old racing always turns out to be a crapshoot, but by the end of the year, we usually have at least somewhat of an idea as to who is going to contend for the Kentucky Derby in just a few months. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile isn't always the best indicator of who is going to win the Run for the Roses, but it's the best early sign we have to work with for the year to come.
The $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile is the seventh event on Saturday, November 4 at the Breeders' Cup and shouldn't be missed by bettors. Post-time from Del Mar Racetrack is scheduled for 6:58 p.m. ET, and all of the action can be seen live on NBC Sports Network.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Opening Odds
#11 Bolt d'Oro +180
#5 Free Drop Bills +500
#2 Solomini +600
#4 Firenze Fire +600
#1 U S Navy Flag +800
#6 Good Magic +800
#12 Hollywood Star +1500
#4 Givemeaminit +2000
#7 The Tabulator +2000
#9 Hazit +2000
#8 Bahamian +3000
#10 Golden Dragon +3000
Top Contenders
There's Bolt d'Oro, and then there's the rest of the two-year olds that came to Del Mar.
What isn't there to like about Bolt d'Oro? He's blown away three fields that he's run against this year, including two here at Del Mar. He's training well. He's the only horse to have turned a 100+ Beyer Speed Rating in his last race leading into the Breeders' Cup. He's incredibly well-bred. And the rest of this field doesn't feel like it's anything all that special.
Maybe one thing to not like? The price. There's a good chance Bolt d'Oro is going to be close to an odds-on favorite by the time this race goes off on Saturday night, and it's risky to bet on any two-year old as an odds-on favorite against a crop of other proven champs.
That said, it's hard to find anyone else to go against him.
Free Drop Billy is the most likely contender at a price of 5 to 1thanks to his win at the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland Park.
Solomini seems to have a bit of a case as well, but he was blasted soundly by Bolt d'Oro at the FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita and probably isn't quite ready for this fight.
We also wonder if Firenze Fire is ready for this moment. He pulled off an upset as an 11 to 1 choice at the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, but that field wasn't all that special either. Still, Firenze Fire has put down several of his competitors in this field, including Free Drop Billy at the Sanford Stakes. That makes him hard to ignore even though he's never been a favorite anywhere he has gone in his four career races.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Pick
If you don't have the guts to stick with Bolt d'Oro as such a big favorite in a potentially wild race, the horse we find the most value in is U S Navy Flag.
Trainer Aidan O'Brien is making a curious decision with this pony. U S Navy Flag has run 10 times in his career already, and all 10 races have been on the turf on the other side of the pond. The common belief was that this pony was coming to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf race. Instead, O'Brien clearly has U S Navy Flag pointing towards the Kentucky Derby.
Plus, with the way O'Brien is just cramming this horse into race after race, you know he's going to look fresh with three weeks off to prepare after winning the Darley Dewhurst Stakes.
The European ponies come over to the United States and pull off a shock every now and again, and U S Navy Flag is a good candidate to do just that, especially if his price rises beyond his morning line of 8 to 1.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Pick: #1 U S Navy Flag
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