In a vacuum, the Florida Derby is already an incredibly important race. It's the last of the prep races for the Kentucky Derby in the Sunshine State, and both the winner and second place finisher are sure to get into the field at the Run for the Roses in a few weeks.
That said, that's only the secondary story. The biggest issue at hand is the battle between Mohaymen and Nyquist, both of which are expected to be amongst the frontrunners at the Derby.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Sawyers Mickey 30/1
2: Fellowship 15/1
3: Majesto 20/1
4: Nyquist 6/5
5: Copingaway 50/1
6: Chovanes 30/1
7: Takeittotheedge 20/1
8: Fashionable Freddy 30/1
9: Moyhaymen 1/1
10: Isofass 30/1
Is it clear enough that there are two horses in this field of any substance and eight which are fighting for what could be 20 vital Kentucky Derby points given to the third place finisher?
The only reason Mohaymen or Nyquist aren't massive odds-on favorites in this race is because they're going against each other, and we could make a tremendous case for either one to win the Florida Derby. No one horse in this field is better than 15 to 1.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
We'll start with Mohaymen, the undefeated winner of the Fountain of Youth, Holy Bull, Remsen and Nashua Stakes. Junior Alvarado has had the ride aboard Mohaymen for all of his starts, and that will be the case at the Kentucky Derby in a few weeks as well.
Mohaymen has the same look and style of American Pharoah, a horse which wants to run out towards the lead without really setting the pace before galloping away to victory. His only close race was his maiden effort, but aside from that, he's taken the lead into the home stretch and hasn't looked back, winning each of his last four by at least 2 1/4 lengths.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
It's tough to call Nyquist an "underdog" here, but it's clear that he's the only other horse with a shot to win the Florida Derby.
Nyquist is also undefeated and also has only known one jockey in his life, Mario Gutierrez. He won the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, but Doug O'Neill wanted to get him on the East Coast for this challenge to see where he stacks up against the supposed favorite to win the Derby.
Nyquist is the two-year old champ, and it would be something if he won this race and then the Kentucky Derby. There's only been one horse, Street Sense in 2006, to pull off the double of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, but Nyquist has a great chance to be the next.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Either way, this is going to be a fantastic race, and you're not going to make a bad pick either way. Nyquist is likely to sprint out to the lead in this one, while Mohaymen will be hot on his tail and eager to strike. If we've got a concern, it's that Nyquist last ran a seven-furlong race 47 days ago.
That's why we're going to take our chances with Mohaymen. It's not a pick we're super confident in though, as this could be a pure tossup. We realize these two are on really level terms, and we wouldn't be afraid to back the loser at a better price in the Kentucky Derby.
Play Mohaymen to win the Florida Derby
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