For many, the 2016 horse racing season has yet to really get started. Many of the colts running in Saturday's Fred Hooper Stakes haven't run yet in 2016 and are prepping themselves for longer races by taking on this one-mile jaunt at Gulfstream Park.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Ami's Flatter
2: Saraguaro
3: Tommy Macho
4: Stanford
5: Grande Shores
6: Wildcat Red
7: Morning Calm
8: Just Call Kenny
Wildcat Red is the top rated horse in this field by class rating and by Prime Power, and that's sure to make him the favorite, if not the odds on favorite to win the Fred Hooper Stakes. However, Tommy Macho, a late-blooming four-year old whom many probably have never heard of, is second best in both categories, and he could provide some great value here as well.
Stanford, a colt many are probably familiar with because of his road to the Kentucky Derby last year, has really fallen off the face of the earth, and he'll be amongst the big underdogs on Saturday.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Wildcat Red loves racing in Florida for whatever reason. He's got five wins and four places in 11 showings at Gulfstream Park in his career, and he's been turning incredibly sharp workouts on this track of late, most notably at 59 flat on January 9 over five furlongs.
Wildcat Red is going to want to get out to the head of the pack in the Fred Hooper Stakes, and we don't see a lot of opposition to him in doing so. Sure, he's lost three straight races, but Javier Castellano wouldn't have come here if they didn't believe that this was a winnable race.
He's earned over $1.1 million in his career, easily more than double any other horse in this field.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Saraguaro presents some value to us, even knowing that he's going to be a massive underdog in this one. His last effort was a poor one, as he finished eighth at the Sunshine Millions Classic in January here at Gulfstream, and he hasn't run against the big boys in a graded stakes race in his career.
That said, Saraguaro does have some awesome breeding, and his two efforts before the Sunshine Millions were 103 and 101 Beyer Speed Ratings. He's going to come from off the pace of what should be a fast race on Saturday.
If the Fred Hooper Stakes is more about positioning than about speed in the end though, Saraguaro could have a say in the final results.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The big problem that the rest of the field is going to have in this one is that no one is likely to be pushing Wildcat Red out of the gates. Tommy Macho will probably go out with him, and though he's largely considered the second best horse in this field, we think he's still second best for a reason.
If Castellano can stay at the head of the field and keep the fractions modest for the first half mile or so, we have no doubt that Wildcat Red is going to end up going wire-to-wire. His price isn't going to be all that appealing, and exotic prices are likely to be atrocious as a result, but Wildcat Red is still the smart choice to take home an easy profit at the Fred Hooper Stakes.
Play Wildcat Red to win the Fred Hooper Stakes
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