Three-year old fillies will be on the track at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday afternoon in hopes of winning the Gasparilla Stakes, a race which would help propel them into the discussion for the Kentucky Oaks later on in the year.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Valueable Charmer
2: High Pitch
3: Missalaney
4: Conflate
5: Catira Rock
6: R Girls a Charmer
7: Cosmic Girl
8: A Little Attitude
9: Kylbrylie
10: Hidden Treat
There probably aren't all that many fillies in this race with a legitimate chance to win the Kentucky Oaks this year, but R Girls a Charmer might be the exception to that rule. She's got a lot going for her in this race, not the least of which is her top rating in Prime Power at 137.5.
When the morning lines drop at Tampa Bay Downs for this weekend, we have no doubt that R Girls a Charmer is going to be the favorite in this race, and likely be an odds on margin.
Valueable Charmer - who, interestingly enough, is not a part of the same stable as R Girls a Charmer - and Cosmic Girl would be the next two fillies in line according to Prime Power, and they figure to be the second and third favorites at the Gasparilla Stakes in some order.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
We've only scratched the surface of what makes R Girls a Charmer the best filly in this race.
She's going to come out of the blocks in the lead in all likelihood as she's done with her two previous maiden races, and she's going to be tough to catch from there. At six furlongs in her last race, she literally extended her lead every step of the way to win by 6 3/4 lengths. Clearly, she had the extra furlong in her, so we don't expect that to be an issue whatsoever.
Let's also not forget that R Girls a Charmer blew through her most recent workout at 47 and 4 over four furlongs, an incredibly quick speed at this point in a filly's career.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Conflate could end up having a good price on her head for this race. She's going to break from the fourth post position, and she's likely to be a double-digit underdog for good reason. She hasn't broken a Beyer Speed Rating of 81 in her career yet, and her training regiments haven't been great either.
That said, in a race full of starters, Conflate is going to have no problem dipping to the rear of the pack and making up ground as the race progresses. She was best at 6 1/2 furlongs instead of five or six, and we wonder if stretching her out to seven furlongs will be the key to giving her a shot to win.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Any way you slice it, this race comes back to R Girls a Charmer to us. Trainer Mark Casse knows what he's doing in this situation, and he brought a filly who needs a little bit more of a resume to Tampa Bay Downs to get her ready for the spring season at Gulfstream Park.
With a field full of fillies who probably don't have any legitimate aspirations to do anything more than run in undercard races at Gulfstream in their future, it would take a mammoth upset to take down the favorite in our eyes.
Play R Girls a Charmer to win the Gasparilla Stakes
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