For all intents and purposes, a golden ticket to the Kentucky Derby will be handed out on Saturday at the Gotham Stakes, as the winner will claim 50 Derby Points to essentially lock up a spot in the Run for the Roses.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Laoban 15/1
2: Shagaf 4/1
3: Adventist 4/1
4: Vincento 20/1
5: Mo Power 6/1
6: Conquest Big E 6/1
7: Sunny Ridge 7/2
8: Rally Cry 5/1
Spring racing in New York typically ends up giving us a few Kentucky Derby contenders, but we don't see it this year. Sunny Ridge is the only colt who has topped 100 for a Beyer Speed Rating in his career, and the last time these colts were all on the track, none of them did better than a 92. Sunny Ridge's race-leading 140.8 rating by Prime Power is nothing to write home about, nor is his 119.0 Class Rating.
Still, Sunny Ridge is the favorite here over Adventist and Shagaf, but only by a small margin. In fact, it wouldn't be all that shocking if any of Rally Cry, Conquest Big E or Mo Power ended up getting a lot of action to become amongst the favorites either.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
We'll say this much about Sunny Ridge: At least he's a winner. He's hit the board five times in his six career races, and in his first race here at Aqueduct in his career, he won the Withers Stakes by 3/4 of a length.
We're not thrilled with his workouts, nor are we thrilled with his Beyers outside of the 103 at the Delta Downs Jackpot, but we do think he's the deserving favorite of this race and probably needs to be considered a little more seriously.
Trainer Jason Servis knows that even a third place finish at the Gotham Stakes is probably enough to ensure his colt will have a chance to race at the Kentucky Derby, knowing that he already has the 20 points from the Withers and another five from the Delta Downs Jackpot.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Shagaf isn't a huge underdog here, but he probably has the most potential to win the Kentucky Derby for trainer Chad Brown of any colt in this field. He's yet to be beaten in two races, though this is the first time he's been in a graded stakes race.
That said, Shagaf at least doesn't have a blemish on his record. His 90 Beyer Speed Rating from his second race could've been better if he was pushed just a bit at the wire, and he posted a 99 Beyer in his maiden effort.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We're going to have to treat the Gotham Stakes with the process of elimination theory. We really don't like Shagaf from the simply because he's never raced at this level, nor do we like any of the real underdogs.
Winning the Withers is worth something to Sunny Ridge and his bettors, and the fact of the matter is that he deserves some serious consideration here, knowing that he's really done little to prove that he isn't a worthy contender.
We're afraid of unknown Manuel Franco as a jockey on this stage, and Servis isn't the most known trainer ever, but the combination worked a few weeks ago at the Withers, and it could work at the Gotham as well.
Play Sunny Ridge to win the Gotham Stakes
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