The posts have been drawn, and the morning line odds have been posted for the Kentucky Derby. Nyquist has been lined as a massive 3 to 1 favorite, but it's anyone's guess whether he'll live up to the billing of the top dog in the Run for the Roses or not.
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KENTUCKY DERBY STARTING POSTS AND MORNING LINE ODDS
1: Trojan Nation (50/1)
2: Suddenbreakingnews (20/1)
3: Creator (10/1)
4: Mo Tom (20/1)
5: Gun Runner (10/1)
6: My Man Sam (20/1)
7: Oscar Nominated (50/1)
8: Lani (30/1)
9: Destin (15/1)
10: Whitmore (20/1)
11: Exaggerator (8/1)
12: Tom's Ready (30/1)
13: Nyquist (3/1)
14: Moyhamen (10/1)
15: Outwork (15/1)
16: Shagaf (20/1)
17: Mor Spirit (12/1)
18: Majesto (30/1)
19: Brody's Cause (12/1)
20: Danzing Candy (15/1)
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS QUICK PICK
Perhaps the most interesting subplot to the Kentucky Derby field is that Mohaymen and Nyquist are lined up right next to each other. Both want to run very similar races out towards the front of the pack, and it's entirely possible that the two could effectively go wire-to-wire without any real challenges from anyone.
But then there's the other possibility that the two rivals could tire each other out as well, clearing the path for some big closers to come out of nowhere and hit the board.
Conventional wisdom needs to be thrown out here. For the good of horse racing, it would be awesome to watch a 1 1/4 mile match race between what we assess are the two best three-year old horses in the world, but for bettors, we have the opportunity to look elsewhere with these two potentially cancelling each other out.
Clearly, if Nyquist and Mohaymen aren't hitting the board, we have to look at closers.
The first that comes to mind is Exaggerator, the horse who put on the best charge at the end of a race we've seen thus far in the Derby preps. He blew past the field at the Santa Anita Derby in the stretch run and closed from 9.5 lengths back to win by 6 1/4 against a really good field.
Our concern with Exaggerator though, is that he hasn't trained well at Churchill Downs. He ran five furlongs in a scary-slow 1:02 and 3, and that could be a red alert of trouble to come.
Instead, the colt to really watch out for is Mo Tom. He's a 20 to 1 longshot breaking out of the No. 4 post, but he's trained very well at this track, breezing four furlongs in 47 flat and 48 and 3 in separate sessions. Mo Tom probably should've won all of the prep races at the Fair Grounds, but he never really got a great run from Corey Lanerie, getting hung up in traffic in both the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star Stakes.
Boxing Mo Tom on top of a gob of horses is definitely a way to go here. Any triple with him on top of it is going to pay out four figures for sure on your $2 bet, and with the horses we think could reasonably hit the board with him, we might even be talking about close to a five-figure payout.
Go into this knowing that there's a good chance Nyquist walks away from the field, but as a bettor, you've got to be willing to play the odds and go for the gusto. Mo Tom is your lynch pin to do just that.
Horse Racing Odds: Mo Tom (4) to win Kentucky Derby over Suddenbreakingnews (2) and Exaggerator (8)
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here, and start wagering right now! Bet on horse racing today with the Kentucky Derby, which goes to post on Saturday, May 7, 2016 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs. The race can be seen live on NBC.
