The Lexington Stakes is the last chance for three-year old ponies to get any points for the Kentucky Derby.
It's not all that likely that any of the colts in this field will ultimately find themselves in the Run for the Roses in a few weeks, but if there are enough defections, it's entirely possible that the winner could go to Churchill Downs.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: One More Round 30/1
2: Direct Message 15/1
3: Lomcevak 15/1
4: Swipe 9/5
5: Synchrony 10/1
6: Big Squeeze 10/1
7: Call the Colonel 20/1
8: Riker 6/1
9: Yo Carm 15/1
10: Collected 2/1
The three favorites in this race, Swipe, Collected and Riker are all sitting between 10 and 12 Kentucky Derby points heading into the last major prep race of the year. If one of these three goes on to win the Lexington Stakes, that will put that horse in the 20s.
That's not good enough to get into the Top 20 to get into the Run for the Roses, but if there are enough horses in the 30s which bow out, perhaps a spot could open up.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
In all likelihood, trainer Keith Desormeaux is only bringing Swipe to the Lexington Stakes as a prep for the rest of the major summer races. He hasn't raced as a three-year old yet and the last time we saw him was at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He finished second that day to Nyquist.
Let's not forget that Nyquist has beaten Swipe in four consecutive races from August through October. Nyquist is still undefeated now that we're several months into their three-year old years, and there's no shame in finishing second best to one of the best horses in the world.
If Swipe is truly ready to get back on the track, this is a race he really should win.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Riker hasn't run much as a three-year old either. His only race this year was at the Tampa Bay Derby, a lousy sixth place finish which yielded no Derby Points. Had Riker even hit the board in that race, he would've had a real chance of reaching the Kentucky Derby. Instead, he was awful and looked tired, but it's worth remembering that he hadn't been on the track for five months.
Riker is a starter by nature, and the Lexington Stakes is often a race won by the first horse out of the blocks, and that makes him incredibly dangerous in a race without many other starters.
QUICK PICK
Riker certainly has something to prove in his second race back from hiatus, and we think his price of 6 to 1 against a field without all that much in the way of speed offers up some value. Swipe could have the same issue in the Lexington that Riker had in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Collected might've won his last race with a 102 Beyer Speed Rating, but there's a big difference between winning at Sunland and winning here in Keeneland Park. We do think there's a really good chance that he wins this race, but if we're talking about great value here, getting a price of 6 to 1 on Riker is just too good to pass on.
Horse Racing Odds: Riker to win Lexington Stakes (6/1)
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