The best racing at most of the top tracks in the nation is now closed for the year, but Aqueduct is still going strong in spite of the fact that the weather is starting to really take a turn for the worse in the northeast.
The Long Island Handicap is always a great featured race the week after the Breeders' Cup, and it takes center stage with its solid $200,000 purse to be given out this Saturday.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu in the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Goldy Espony
2: Rosalind
3: Danza Cavallo
4: Evidently
5: Gotachancetodance
6: Mei Ling
7: Courtesan
8: Mutatis Mutandis
9: Crisolles
10: Walk Close
11: Interrupted
What really is going to make the Long Island Handicap tough to figure out this year is the fact that so many of these horses have never seen this track before. In fact, no one has ever hit the board at Aqueduct in their careers in this field, and so many of the horses are only here in America after trying to qualify for the Breeders' Cup and failing. Many have never won on American soil after having successful careers in Europe.
If we had to forecast a favorite, it would be Danza Cavallo, the top-rated horse according to Prime Power in this big field of 11. That said, we sincerely doubt we see any of the 11 fillies and mares set at anything less than 4 to 1 at the Long Island Handicap.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
It's actually not Danza Cavallo we're going to be watching as a favorite to bet on, though. Rosalind will have a nice price on her head as well. She has the best history in this field for our money, as she was amongst the favorites at the E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine last month and placed third in the Grade 3 race.
That race in Canada though, proved a lot to us. She was in the league all the way until the final furlong when she gave out just a bit. We're concerned that she doesn't have this distance of 1 1/2 miles in her, but her history suggests that the longer the distance, the better off she ends up running.
Trainer Chad Brown knows what he's doing at this level, and if he's letting Rosalind run in a Grade 3 race at 1 1/2 miles, he knows that she can make it the distance.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Mutatis Mutandis was third best in the Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes last month at Belmont Park. That was her very first race here in the United States, and she acquitted herself well in spite of the fact that she was up against a tough field and was a 15 to 1 longshot.
Overseas, Mutatis Mutandis wasn't all that special with just three wins in 16 career starts. However, she has trained well here in the United States and has that one great race to show for her work. Some horses just race better in different locations, though it's rare that any thoroughbred comes from Europe to America and performs stronger.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Danta Cavallo probably has the highest ceiling of all the fillies and mares in this field, as she does have a career 112 Beyer Speed Rating to her credit in a race which was ironically run on this track. It'll be tough to leave her out of exotics.
That said, we still prefer Rosalind for the value we're going to get, though we think an exacta box with Rosalind and Danta Cavallo might be in order.
Play Rosalind to win the Long Island Handicap
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