For all intents and purposes, the first ticket to the Kentucky Derby will be punched on Saturday night at the Fair Grounds. Fifty points towards qualification for the Run for the Roses will be handed out to the winner of the Risen Star Stakes.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: In Equality 30/1
2: Mo Tom 3/1
3: Dolphus 15/1
4: Bistraya 15/1
5: Forevamo 12/1
6: Gun Runner 6/1
7: Its All Relevant 15/1
8: Tom's Ready 8/1
9: Laoban 30/1
10: Airoforce 5/2
11: Zapperini 30/1
12: Uncle Walter 8/1
13: Candy My Boy 15/1
There are other races where big amounts of Derby Points are going to be given away which can't draw anywhere near full fields, but here at the Risen Star Stakes, there are a lot of horses who are hoping to get their golden ticket to Churchill Downs the first week of May.
Airoforce is the slight favorite over Mo Tom to win this race, though it would be relatively surprising if the winner of the Risen Star Stakes was any other colt in this field. Gun Runner, Tom's Ready and Uncle Walter are all between 6 to 1 and 8 to 1. No other three-year old here is better than 12 to 1.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Mo Tom has been given a pretty good inside post here in the No. 2 spot, and he's coming off of a win at the LeComte Stakes as the favorite. He beat out Tom's Ready and Uncle Walter that day, and the only new colt of any note he's set to go up against here is Airoforce.
Mo Tom is a trailer by nature, and that could end up playing really well on Saturday. Ponies who run from off the pace typically do well in the Bayou, and that showed at the Fair Grounds last month when Mo Tom won the LeComte.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Dolphus only knows this track in his career, and though he has never run in a graded stakes race, this could be a big day for him. He won his last race, an optional claiming race just a few weeks ago, and he's had pretty reasonable training sessions of late as well.
What concerns us with Dolphus is the fact that Brian Hernandez Jr. isn't historically a great jockey at a level like this one. He's got really good breeding with Lookin At Lucky and Lotta Kim as his parents though, and he's probably the biggest threat of the double-digit underdogs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Airoforce is probably the best horse in this field, but we're not sure that this is his race. He hasn't run since November, and though he's been working out well, we aren't sure that his first race at th Fair Grounds is where he should be bet upon as a favorite at 5 to 2.
Instead, we'll take our chances that Mo Tom takes the cake at the LeComte Stakes. This is a field with a lot of speed at the outset, and we suspect they'll all end up tiring themselves out, giving an opportunity for Mo Tom to take his second race in a row.
Play Mo Tom to win the LeComte Stakes
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