This time of year, horses racing at a number of different tracks across the country will have a chance to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Spiral Stakes only awards 50 Kentucky Derby Points to the winner instead of the 100-point races at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and the likes, but regardless, whomever hits the line first on Saturday night will surely be heading to the hallowed grounds of Churchill Downs.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: That Makes Sense 30/1
2: Surgical Strike 12/1
3: Jensen 6/1
4: Don't Be So Salty 8/1
5: Oscar Nominated 10/1
6: Two Step Time 15/1
7: Strike Up the Band 20/1
8: Kasseopia 6/1
9: Swagger Jagger 20/1
10: Airoforce 3/1
11: Ralis 6/1
12: Azar 5/1
An interesting field has come to Turfway Park indeed. Ralis and Airoforce were once thought to be amongst the big favorites to win the Kentucky Derby, but instead, both have trailed off and all of a sudden face must-win (or at least must place) propositions if they want to get to Churchill Downs.
Airoforce is the favorite at 3 to 1, but it isn't a convincing price. Several colts are right nearby him, namely Azar and international transplant, Kasseopia.
There are a pair of alternate entries into the Spiral Stakes in the event of any scratches, so be aware that even a scratch isn't going to change the odds to win this race dramatically unless it's one of the favorites that don't run.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
You just have to wonder what happened to Airoforce at the Risen Star Stakes in February. He was bumped out of his break and never recovered, ultimately finishing 39 lengths off the pace. It's really the only blemish on his record, but we're not all that sure something isn't wrong with him.
Trainer Mark Casse took him out of Louisiana early and brought him to off tracks to train. He hasn't had blazing fractions in workouts, and he has a no-name jockey on his back in Albin Jimenez.
That said, the talent is clearly here. You don't finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a neck and then win the Kentucky Jockey's Club a month later without having an immense amount of talent. We just haven't seen it out of Airoforce yet.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Surgical Strike could be an interesting play here on Saturday. He's 12 to 1, but he's really the only horse with good experience on this track. He won the John Battaglia a few weeks ago, the main prep race for the Spiral Stakes, and that in and of itself is a strong case for him to win this one.
However, Surgical Strike hasn't cracked a 90 Beyer Speed Rating in his career, and he's going to have to do better than that in this one to ultimately win.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We wouldn't blame anyone who wanted no part of Airoforce right now. Kasseopia makes a strong case to be a contender after his two first successful races in America, while Ralis is another one of these colts with a lot of talent but with a couple bad races in a row under his belt.
That's why we're going to take the hefty price of 3 to 1 on a colt which probably shouldn't even be here in Cincinnati with the limited amount of talent he has to offer. If he fails though, don't be surprised if we don't see Airoforce again until the summer.
Play Airoforce to win the Spiral Stakes
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