The Florida Derby is the premier race for three-year olds in Florida, but winning that race isn't the only road to the Kentucky Derby. Winning the Tampa Bay Derby would end up doing the same thing, though the winner of this one is very likely going to get shipped down to Gulfstream Park to run in the Florida Derby next month anyway.
You can find horse racing odds at BookMaker.eu at the online racebook.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Morning Fire 15/1
2: Rafting 6/1
3: Outwork 12/1
4: Economic Model 5/1
5: Star Hill 15/1
6: Riker 8/1
7: Destin 9/2
8: Brody's Cause 5/2
9: Tale of S'avall 12/1
10: Awesome Banner 8/1
One look at this field, and it's clear that there's a case to be made for all 10 of these horses to win the Tampa Bay Derby. Brody's Cause is the favorite and a colt we'll speak about in just a moment, but his 5 to 2 price isn't all that convincing.
Keep in mind that Destin at 9 to 2 isn't far behind, nor are Economic Model at 5 to 1 and Rafting at 6 to 1. No one in this field has longer odds than 15 to 1, a price held by Morning Fire and Star Hill.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Brody's Cause is really using this more as a prep race for the Florida Derby or one of the other 100-point races than the one which would be his golden ticket into the Kentucky Derby. However, it wouldn’t be shocking at all if he ultimately won this race, too.
Brody's Cause has fantastic breeding with Giant's Causeway as his sire and Sweet Breanna as his dam, and trainer Dale Romans thinks he only needs one really good run to get his pony to Churchill Downs.
We haven't seen Brody's Cause on the track competitively since October when he was third best at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he sure looked strong in a workout earlier this week when he blew through four furlongs in just 48 and 2.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Rafting is going to present some good value here in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was 3 to 1 at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, the race which was the main prep for this one. He finished second that day to Destin, but one must remember that he had a rough ride from the start. Rafting was shaky out of his break and was bumped for good measure in the stretch, and that probably took away any chance he had of winning that race.
Now, we've got a big overlay. Had Rafting won that race, he'd probably be around 2 to 1 to win this race. Instead, we're getting a 6 to 1 price, one which should seriously be considered.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Brody's Cause is a big time trailer, and he's going to do his best work in the final few furlongs. With a competitive field and a lot of speed out there, this could be the very opening Brody's Cause needs to finish this push.
We're a little concerned about the four-month layoff, and we don't like the fact that he has had mixed results at this distance, but Brody's Cause never seems tired at the end of races. We think he'll put on a good show in the last quarter of a mile at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and have his ticket to the Kentucky Derby punched without needing to race again before May 7.
Play Brody's Cause to win the Tampa Bay Derby
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