Championship thoroughbreds figure out how to fight through adversity to win races. Always Dreaming hasn't been faced with a lot of that in his career, and that's why he's ultimately on his way to the Preakness Stakes for the second leg of the Triple Crown. Can he continue to dodge bullets or figure out how to best others who are in his way to racing immortality? We're not eager to wager on it.
The Preakness Stakes is one of the premier events of the year on the horse racing calendar and shouldn't be missed by bettors on Saturday, May 20, 2017. Post-time from Pimlico Race Course is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET, and all of the action can be seen live on NBC.
Always Dreaming Triple Crown Odds
Always Dreaming to Win Triple Crown +300
Always Dreaming To Not Win Triple Crown -420
Always Dreaming will enter the new week as a 3 to 1 choice to win the Triple Crown. Effectively, the insinuating is there that he'll be around an even money choice to win the Preakness Stakes and not far off from that same point to win the Belmont. BookMaker.eu is booking Always Dreaming at a price of +100 to win the Preakness, that coming after opening him at -110 to get the job done and head to Belmont Park with a shot at winning the Triple Crown for the second time in the last three years.
Why Always Dreaming Will Win the Triple Crown
There definitely are a lot of things to like about Always Dreaming. His racing style is brilliant. He's a frontrunner for sure, but he proved in the Derby that he doesn't have to be quite on the lead in the very first few strides to get the job done. He settled into second in the first quarter mile and ultimately breezed that distance in just under 24 seconds. But by the half mile point, he was in the lead and never looked back from there, and that's why he came through that race with not a single drop of mud on him even though the track at Churchill Downs was as muddy as could be that day.
Todd Pletcher knows his way around the track, and everyone knows he's going to give this colt every chance to win the Triple Crown even though it's only his second Kentucky Derby winner in his illustrious career. We know he's got a top jockey on his back as well with John Velazquez, and this partnership has produced a slew of Grade 1 victories over the course of the last several years.
Furthermore, there's no doubt that Always Dreaming was the best horse in the field on Saturday, and if that really was the best group of three-year old thoroughbreds this year, the price is a good one on what was clearly the best pony at the Derby winning both the Preakness and the Belmont as well.
Why Always Dreaming Won't Win the Triple Crown
The bottom line with Always Dreaming is that we aren't convinced he's that great of a horse. He didn't race well as a young two-year old, and though he's been good with Velazquez onboard to the tune of four wins in four races, he's never been met with a huge amount of adversity either. He's going to have every three-year old gunning for him over the course of the next five weeks, and even if he does survive at Pimlico, there are plenty of horses who are preparing for the Belmont as well.
One horse to note is Epicharis. He's considered to be a top three-year old this year running out of Japan, and though he was qualified to run in the Kentucky Derby, quarantine rules kept him from doing so. There's no doubt that he's well-bred to run in the Belmont Stakes, as are so many other horses like Lookin At Lee and Classic Empire who ran in the Kentucky Derby.
Sure, Always Dreaming looks like he has the distance in him, but so too did California Chrome, and we all know how that worked out in the last leg of the Triple Crown.
In the end, Always Dreaming is going to be asked twice to either push really hard out of the blocks to get to the lead or to run in a stalking position instead, and we just have no proof that either of those things happening will ultimately allow him enough leeway to ultimately win the race.
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