A dozen of the ponies of tomorrow are going to get their first big time start on Saturday against one other in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, the winner of which is sure to be amongst the favorites at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at the end of the fall season.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Conquest Windycity 7/2
2: Meeteetse Fly 15/1
3: Expected Ruler 9/2
4: Condominium 6/1
5: Unbridled Outlaw 4/1
6: Cocked and Loaded 10/1
7: Star Hill 10/1
8: Dothat Dance 30/1
9: Missle Bomb 12/1
10: Rated R Superstar 8/1
11: Twirling Cinnamon 12/1
12: Baychimo 30/1
A 12-horse field without a clear favorite makes this a bettors' dream if they can figure out how to get this one right. Conquest Windycity was the favorite at the Iroquois Stakes to kick off the weekend, but it's anyone's guess whether he, Expected Ruler, Condominium or Unbridled Outlaw will go to post as the bettors' choice.
One thing is for sure though, and that's that even the 30 to 1 longshots of Dothat Dance and Baychimo are going to be in it with a fight, knowing the unpredictability of these two-year old races.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Condominium is the only one of these horses in this field to run better than an 86 Beyer Speed Rating at any point in their careers, and that's a good indication that he at least has the ability in him to improve. Jon Court is going to be getting the mount on this pony for the first time in his career for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, and the results are going to be interesting, to say the least.
Even though Condominium hasn't won a race yet in his career, he did run some really sharp workouts of late, turning four furlongs in 48 and 2 just last weekend. We don't have a lot of past data to go by for these horses, so great workouts are generally the best sign that we have.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Even though he only ran a 65 Beyer Speed Rating in his one and only career start, we see some potential in Meeteetse Fly. He ran his maiden at one mile and won, which tells us that he has a good chance of clearing the 1 1/16 miles with ease, and he was a well bet on pony in his debut.
Furthermore, Meeteetse Fly has also added Lasix, which might end up helping him stay a little more focused on the track and should ultimately turn a better Beyer.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Condominium should come out of the blocks first in this race, but the big concern we have with him is that he hasn't raced at even seven furlongs in his career, and now he's being asked to go 1 1/16 miles.
Still, the colts that have run at least seven furlongs are the only ones we are going to consider on Saturday at the Iroquois Stakes. Conquest Windycity is a possibility, as is Cocked and Loaded, but in the end, we see a lot more value in Meeteetse Fly than we do any of these other 11 in this field.
It'll be a tough race to try to win, but a price of 15 to 1 makes it worthwhile as a lottery ticket.
Play Meeteetse Fly to win the Iroquois Stakes
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