All of the focus this year at Churchill Downs is on the boys who are going to be running a mile and a quarter on Saturday afternoon.
However, the three-year old ladies will start their quest at the Triple Tiara on Friday at the Kentucky Oaks, which should also be a fantastic race.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Forever Unbridled (15/1)
2: Shook Up (30/1)
3: Include Betty (20/1)
4: Eskenformoney (20/1)
5: Condo Commando (4/1)
6: Angela Renee (15/1)
7: Lovely Maria (5/1)
8: I'm a Chatterbox (4/1)
9: Money'soncharlotte (50/1)
10: Oceanwave (30/1)
11: Sarah Sis (30/1)
12: Stellar Wind (7/2)
13: Birdathewire (6/1)
14: Puca (15/1)
Not surprisingly, the odds are very tight in the Kentucky Oaks as they always are. There isn't a filly in the field better than 7 to 2, and there are still very reasonably four or five others, notably Condo Commando and I'm a Chatterbox who could turn out to be the favorite of this race by the time it's said and done with.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
We love Stellar Wind in this race with Victor Espinoza onboard. Her breeding is as good for this race as any we have seen in this field. Not only does she have the powerhouse Curlin on her side as her sire, but she also has Malibu Moon and Evening Star in her bloodlines as well.
Furthermore, Stellar Wind really hasn't been challenged anywhere she has gone since her first maiden race. She won her two prep races by 2 3/4 lengths and 5 1/4 lengths, and the latter race at the Santa Anita Oaks was the most impressive showing a filly has had so far this year as a three-year old.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
15 to 1 is just a really good price on Angela Renee when you look at what she has done lately. She was a 3 to 1 choice at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies race last year, and she was the 3 to 1 choice at the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland Park last month. Though she didn't win either of those races, she has a history of being a strong filly throughout on the dirt.
That 101 Beyer Speed Rating was really good at the Ashland Stakes. Yes, Lovely Maria did beat Angela Renee that day, but she was still game for the entire race and finished second.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Condo Commando is the other filly we really like in this race. She’s a big time starter by nature, and unlike in the Kentucky Derby, when the horses that start out front tend to fade, good positioning at the head of the field in the Kentucky Oaks tends to pay dividends.
Still, we think that Condo Commando is going to get knocked off right at the tail end of this race. Angela Renee is going to put up a really good fight and hit the board, but in the end, this is still Stellar Wind's race to lose, even if she is going to come from off of the pace.
Stellar Wind to win the Kentucky Oaks
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