A long 1 1/2 mile jaunt is in store for nine colts on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs at the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Majestic Harbor is very likely going to be the favorite here in the Louisville Handicap, knowing that he is coming off of two really good allowance races. He ran twice in a span of three weeks in April, winning at Keeneland Park by 3 1/4 lengths against a good field of turfers, and then doing so here at Churchill Downs by two lengths. In both races, he beat out Patrioticandproud, one of the colts who he will be lined up against in this race on Saturday.
The question that we have with Majestic Harbor is whether he is covering this 1 1/2 mile distance. He’s never raced at a mile and a half in his career, and though he has shown here of late that he can certainly cover 1 1/16 miles, there is a big difference between that and making it the extra three furlongs from there.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Cozy Kitten could be an interesting choice on Saturday at the Louisville Handicap, and you'll probably get a 10 to 1 price on his head if he wins.
There isn't a lot to love about a pony that’s run 42 times in his career and has just 19 podium finishes and a little over $300,000 in earnings, but we do like the fact that he knows this track and this distance as well. He enters off a whopping 109 Beyer Speed Rating in an ungraded stakes race at Gulfstream Park at the beginning of the month, and if he asserts himself well to the extra distance from that 1 1/8 mile race and the lack of time off, he could be one to watch for sure.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Still, this is a race which we see playing out for the favorite. The problem that Cozy Kitten is going to have is the fact that he is going to be running from off of the pace like Majestic Harbor and Royal Blessing.
Patrioticandproud might be best served going to the head of the pack, something that he wasn't able to do in any of the top races he ran on the dirt before switching back to the grass, but instead, the speed should belong to Xtra Luck, a sure to be longshot in the Louisville Handicap.
Calvados could be an interesting play as well from the front of the field, though this is a relatively unknown colt. Calvados spent his entire career in Argentina, and he hasn't acclimated himself well to running in the States quite yet.
Xtra Luck could hit the board though, and he becomes an interesting choice knowing that he has at least run at this distance of late and finished second at an allowance race in April.
That said, Xtra Luck doesn't have the experience running in the bigger stakes races like Majestic Harbor has.
Expect the last quarter mile or so to be a runaway from this field, as Majestic Harbor will ultimately claim the Louisville Handicap with ease by blowing past this relatively small field to take his first graded stakes victory of the year.
Play Majestic Harbor to win the Louisville Handicap
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