It might be a light weekend of racing in the United States, but in Canada, the graded stakes races are just getting started.
The first of the season at Woodbine is the Nassau Stakes, a one-mile race for fillies and mares older than three.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Strut the Course 12/1
2: Skylander Girl 8/1
3: Overheard 4/1
4: Stellar Path 7/2
5: Surtsey 20/1
6: Llanarmon 15/1
7: Sky Treasure 20/1
8: Copper Kitten 20/1
9: Deceptive Vision 3/1
10: Silent Star 20/1
11: Resistivity 20/1
12: Winning Rhythm 6/1
A 12-horse field is a good sized field for a race at Woodbine this early in the season, and that has created a very tight field early on in their season in the Great White North. There isn't a horse amongst the dozen who has worse than 20 to 1 odds, but there also isn't a filly or mare that has better than 3 to 1 odds on the morning lines either.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Deceptive Vision has been fantastic in her career. She’s hit the board in all nine of her career races, and she has five wins in the nine. So far this season, she has only raced once, a win at the Hilliard Lyons Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland Park in April.
Now though, it's back to Woodbine for the season, and she is going to try to break her duck at a race which she finished third in last year. The good news is that neither Solid Appeal nor Why Katherine, the two who finished first and second last year in this race, aren't coming back. That year though, Deceptive Vision was the solid 7 to 5 choice of the oddsmakers, and she just never panned out, getting run down in the stretch run to finish third.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Strut the Course has a great price at 12 to 1 on her head. She raced here at Woodbine three times at the end of last year, and her familiarity with this track should help her out quite a bit. However, at the end of last year, she moved to Churchill Downs and lost the Falls City Handicap, finishing a very disappointing seventh.
Still, seven wins in 17 races is a nice clip, and the fact that she’s run four straight five-furlong training sessions in under 1:01 is very encouraging.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It's going to be really tough to get past Deceptive Vision in this race, knowing that she is going to get out of the blocks in strong form. Sky Treasure should go out with her, and Winning Rhythm could also be sent to the front of the field.
However, we just can't get over that 12 to 1 price on Strut the Course. She is a closer by nature in a race which will have a lot of speed and not a lot of closing prowess.
Furthermore, she has run tremendously well on this track both in training sessions and in actual races, and that price tag on her head is just far too good to pass up on.
The second verse here at the Nassau Stakes will be the same as the first for Deceptive Vision, but this time, it will be Strut the Course who runs her down at the wire.
Play Strut the Course to win the Nassau Stakes
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