The Super Derby is a Grade 2 race which carries a $400,000 guaranteed purse with it. It's a race which has lost some luster over the years, but we know there is a real chance to shine for the seven in this field on Saturday afternoon.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Prime Engine
2: Four Leaf Chief
3: The Pickett Factor
4: Fusaichi Flame
5: Allied Air Raid
6: Chocopologie
7: Mobile Bay
As of the publication of this article, morning line odds had yet to be posted for Saturday's races. That said, we know that The Pickett Factor, who won four straight races at Louisiana Downs over the summer, will end up being amongst the favorites in the No. 3 post, while Allied Air Raid will be with him as well.
None of the seven horses are expected to be odds on favorites in this one.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
It's all about The Pickett Factor for our money. Yes, he is moving up in class, but he blew apart the field at the Super Derby Prelude in his last race on this track in August, and four of the colts who ran that day are going to be going up against him.
Familiarity with the track is a big perk, but we also know that The Pickett Factor has the Beyer Speed Ratings to really run with the big boys. His 95 in his last race marked his third straight run in the mid-90s. He might top out there, but we have a tough time imagining that there is going to be a need to run much faster than that to win this one.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
With another furlong or so, Mobile Bay might have ultimately won the Super Derby Prelude. He made his move in the late stages of the race to get up to second and ultimately got boxed in there to settle for third.
That said, Mobile Bay was an 8 to 1 longshot in an eight horse field, and we have a feeling we are going to be able to get something like 6 to 1 on him in this race as well. Edgar Prado gives Mobile Bay an experienced jockey with a lot of potential, and this could really fare well for a closer who hasn't had a big time jockey on his back in his career.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Super Derby is a tough race to try to handicap, as it is natural to try to compare these ponies to the other three-year olds whom we have all been watching all summer long at the Triple Crown.
Triple Crown contenders these colts aren't, but this is their day to earn a shot at the big boys in the Breeders' Cup.
Louisiana hasn't always been a breeding ground for outstanding colts, but The Pickett Factor has the right mojo on his side for this one. He won from behind at the Super Derby Prelude, marking the first time he has done so in his career, and he has the look and the feel of the best three-year old in this crop here at the Super Derby as well.
Play The Pickett Factor to win the Super Derby
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