American Pharoah is back on the track in a race which Triple Crown winners historically don't do all that well in. Then again, the super horse has tamed every challenge which has come his way since he turned three, and there's little reason to think that anything will change entering Saturday's Travers Stakes.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Upstart 15/1
2: American Pharoah 1/5
3: Mid Ocean 50/1
4: Texas Red 8/1
5: Frammento 30/1
6: Frosted 6/1
7: Keen Ice 12/1
8: Tale Of Verve 30/1
9: King of New York 50/1
10: Smart Transition 20/1
You think the world has caught on to the fact that this American Pharoah fellow is a pretty darn good colt? It isn't often you see a 1 to 5 favorite, the lowest possible on a New York track, especially in a Grade 1 race with 10 entrants in it, but that has become the reality that is betting on the Triple Crown winner.
There isn't another horse in the field better than Frosted at 6 to 1, and seven of the other nine challengers are at least 12 to 1.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Of course we want to follow American Pharoah!
He walked away from the field at the Haskell Invitational last month at Monmouth Park, and though he only won by 2.5 lengths, Victor Espinosa never challenged his horse, and he could have won by 10 if he wanted to.
The fact that American Pharoah basically just breezed to a 112 Beyer Speed Rating is almost comical nowadays, and it's going to be virtually impossible to bet against him under any circumstance.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Tale Of Verve is the only horse we have seen who has given American Pharoah much in the way of troubles. He finished second in the Preakness Stakes in May, and had that race been run at a longer distance than 1 3/16 miles, perhaps the longest shot on the board that day could have made an impact.
That said, since the Preakness, it's been all downhill for Tale Of Verve. He finished seventh at the Belmont Stakes, second to last of the lot, and he was sixth best at the West Virginia Derby just four weeks ago.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
American Pharoah will once again get off to a stalking pace, but we suspect that there won't be this whole host of favorites going out to challenge him as well. The common consensus amongst jockeys is that you have to run alongside American Pharoah for the full distance of the race, not in front of him to try to beat him.
So far though, all comers have failed this year, and we don't think there will be a horse to challenge American Pharoah until we hit the Breeders' Cup in the fall.
It'll be another waltz in the park for American Pharoah on Saturday, as he will put aside a field full of ponies whom he has already disposed of time and time again on the road to the Triple Crown.
Go with Pharoah by at least three lengths, or more or less by whatever margin of victor Espinosa asks for.
Play American Pharoah to win the Travers Stakes
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