The Kentucky Derby isn't nearly the only big time race going on this weekend at Churchill Downs.
The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic is one of the tremendous races of the year for the colts running on the grass, and it is a race not to miss as well.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Optimizer (12/1)
2: Sky Captain (15/1)
3: Umgiyo (30/1)
4: Scrumpdilicious (50/1)
5: Finnegans Wake (9/2)
6: Coalport (8/1)
7: Jack Milton (5/1)
8: Stephanie's Kitten (9/2)
9: Seek Again (5/1)
10: Chocolate Ride (12/1)
11: Slumber (8/1)
12: Grand Arch (8/1)
Clearly, this is going to be a fantastic race, as there isn't a bona fide favorite. In fact, Stephanie's Kitten and Finnegans Wake are the co-favorites at 9 to 2, which is a tremendously high price on a race with just 12 horses in it. Any of the four of Stephanie's Kitten, Finnegans Wake, Jack Milton and Seek Again could close as the favorite by the time this race goes to post.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Jack Milton is the interesting colt to watch. He hasn't raced much in his career, but he has been a favorite virtually everywhere he‘s gone. He was the winner as the 5 to 1 second choice on the board at the Maker's 46 Mile Stakes last month at Keeneland Park, and we think that win is going to be a big boost for him going into this race.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
The horse with the best recent Beyer in this race is Chocolate Ride. He turned a 108 at the Michael Munoz Jr. Handicap at the end of March at the Fairgrounds, and he could be in for yet another fantastic race in this one.
A speed ball by nature in a field of closers, the key is going to be holding off the rest of the field for Chocolate Ride. He has done it a ton in his career though, and he should hit the board, if nothing else, on Saturday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Finnegans Wake has had the hot hand with three wins in his last four races for trainer Peter Miller, but we think this is going to be a much tougher challenge than he is used to. He is clearly going to start from well off of the pace in this one and try to come all the way, but this field of 12 might prove to be too much for him to get around.
That's also why we are getting rid of Stephanie's Kitten as well. She just isn't used to running against the boys, and we don't foresee a good ending for her if she wants to run from off of the pace.
Seek Again is the interesting choice in the bunch, knowing he’s run some very fast Beyer Speed Ratings in his career, but even so, this is a new distance for him being stretched out to 1 1/4 miles from the one-mile races he’s always been used to.
That's why we're onboard with Chocolate Ride for the upset. That 108 Beyer in his last race is just too good to overlook, and if he can do that once again, not only will he best Slumber for the second straight race, but he'll pull off a big upset at 12 to 1.
Chocolate Slumber to win the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
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