Andrei Arlovski – 24-10, 17 KOs, 3 SUBs – is doing his best Robbie Lawler impression as the heavyweight Cinderella Man. Once written off as a over-the-hill former champion, “The Pit Bull” is on the cusp of another title shot, with three straight wins since returning to the UFC. Now, he faces the resurgent Frank Mir – 18-0, 5 KOs, 9 SUBs – to inch closer to the top of the mountain.
CURRENT ODDS
Our UFC 191 odds currently list Arlovski as nearly a 2-to-1 favorite, with a -175 money line. Mir is a slight underdog at +145. I’d expect the total for this three-round bout to be set at 1.5 rounds, given that these big men have not gotten to the second round much as of late. Don’t forget to check in on fight night for updated prop bets, which include whether the fight will end in a knockout or submission, what round it will end in, and how each man will finish the fight.
OLD DOGS, NEW TRICKS
Nobody expected The Pit Bull to be more than a heavyweight gatekeeper when the UFC brought him back in 2014. But Arlovski has silenced his critics with three straight wins over top-15 opponents in Brendan Schaub, Antonio Silva and Travis Browne. In fact, his thrilling first-round knockout win over Browne is an early favorite for “Round of the Year.”
Mir is in a somewhat similar position, having won two straight. Prior to this streak, many were calling for his retirement as the former champion had lost four in a row, having been rendered unconscious in two of those defeats. But wins over Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee proved that he’s still got something left, although his days as a title contender are likely over.
Because the heavyweight division is thin on credible title challengers, a win by Arlovski could net a title shot. Mir would likely need another victory or two to prove that his comeback is legit, but beating the resurgent Arlovski would go a long way. It’s amazing that both men are 36, with their athletic primes are nearly a decade past, yet they’re still right in the mix.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Arlovski, best known as a fearsome Muay Thai stylist, seems to have tightened up his already dangerous standup game. The switch to the Jackson-Wink camp seems to have rejuvenated his flagging career. What’s more, he remains a plus athlete in his mid-30s, and stays in fantastic shape year-round.
In contrast, Mir has never looked so doughy. While he’s never been known for a hulking physique, he came into his last fight against Duffee with a saggy midsection. Granted, he was still able to pull off the win, but it raises the legitimate question of whether he’s in the best condition on fight night.
Mir does not want to stand and trade with Arlovski, despite the common knowledge that his chin is vulnerable. But the American is not a good enough wrestler to him down at will, putting this fight right in the Belarusian’s wheelhouse. The pick is Arlovski to score a TKO in the second round.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir odds. BookMaker offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. Their championship bout is scheduled for UFC 191, which takes place Saturday, September 5, 2015, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The main card is set to air on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, BookMaker Sportsbook updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
