Cain Velasquez – 13-2, 11 KOs – is getting an opportunity that not many are afforded.
The former heavyweight champion has been granted an immediate rematch against Fabricio Werdum – 20-5, 6 KOs, 10 SUBs – and the chance to become a three-time heavyweight champion. And despite being thoroughly beaten by the Brazilian, Velasquez has opened as the early favorite.
CURRENT ODDS
Cain Velasquez has opened as a light favorite in all sportsbooks thus far, coming in as high as -150. Werdum is a slight underdog, hovering around +120 . The over/under in this five-round championship fight is likely to be set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being the more expensive play. Make sure to check back in on fight night for the latest prop bets!
WHY IS CAIN FAVORED?
The first time these two met, Velasquez closed as a huge -500 favorite, with Werdum going into fight night at +400. Going into the match, many hailed Velasquez as the greatest UFC heavyweight of all time, as the Mexican-American hadn’t lost a single round in four straight fights and had dominated every one of his opponents.
Not only did Werdum pull off a stunning upset, he beat down Velasquez in a way that nobody had ever seen. Velasquez’ face was swollen and bloody by the time Werdum submitted him in the third. More surprisingly, his seemingly endless gas tank had failed him, as the then-champion was gasping for air by the end of the second round.
So why is Velasquez still a favorite in their second go-round? The biggest factor is location. Their first fight took place in Mexico City at an altitude of over 10,000 feet. Several fighters on the undercard gassed early, despite never having cardio issues in previous fights. A few even threw up outside the cage, completely unprepared for the elevation.
Werdum, having fought in Mexico City before, set up a training camp in the mountains surrounding the city and acclimated for months prior to the fight. Velasquez made the huge mistake of arriving just a few weeks before fight night. When the two men stepped into the octagon, Velasquez wasn’t just battling Werdum, he was fighting against a tangible environmental factor that he had never experienced.
Next, Velasquez was coming off an injury and fighting for the first time in more than a year and a half. The last time he fought after a major injury, he lost his title for the first time in a flash TKO at the hands of Junior dos Santos. The next two times they met, a healthy Velasquez brutalized dos Santos.
It should be noted that Werdum is only a slight underdog, and his late-career evolution into an elite heavyweight is nothing short of revolutionary. He’s always been a world-class jiu-jitsu player, but now, his striking has caught up to his grappling, allowing him to reach the peak of his always-considerable potential.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Prior to their first meeting, I predicted that Cain would dominate Werdum. Obviously, I was dead wrong. But now that the fight will likely take place near sea-level, I’m not budging from my belief that Velasquez is the better fighter of the two. But the gap has closed significantly, as Werdum is better than anyone ever expected him to be.
However, gamblers should only be concerned about winners, not how close a fight will be. In that regard, my pick is a healthy Cain to return to form and control Werdum with his trademark ground-and-pound en route to a decision victory.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez odds. BookMaker Sportsbook offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. A date and venue for the championship match has not been announced as of this time.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, BookMaker Sportsbook updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
