After nearly two years on the sidelines, veteran heavyweight contender Josh Barnett – 33-7, 8 KOs, 20 SUBs – will return to the octagon. “The Warmaster” literally has some heavy lifting to do, as he’ll face knockout artist Roy “Big Country” Nelson – 20-11, 13 KOs, 5 SUBs – in one of Japan’s largest stadiums.
CURRENT ODDS
Our online UFC Fight Night 75 currently have Josh Barnett as more than a 2-to-1 favorite, with a -240 money line. Nelson checks in at +190. The total for this five-round main event is likely to be set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being the slightly more expensive play. Remember to check back in on fight night for the latest prop bets, such as what round the fight will end in. And after the fight starts, live betting is also available in our sportsbook.
WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN, BARNETT?
The last time we saw Josh Barnett was in December 2013, when contender Travis Browne rendered him unconscious in the first round at UFC 168. Prior to that, Barnett was 10-1 in his past 11 fights, although many of those came against sub-par competition.
Even at 37, Barnett is still considered one of the best heavyweights in the world – but his inactivity has kept him out of the title picture. He’s one of the savviest veterans around, competing in nearly every major organization since he made his pro debut nearly 20 years ago in 1997.
Nelson has long been a fan favorite in the UFC, because who doesn’t like a fat guy who kicks ass? However, he’s been on a slide for the past two years, going just 1-4 in his past five. Though all of those losses have come against top-10 opponents, he was brutally beaten in all of them. Should he lose to Barnett, Nelson would be hard to take seriously as a top heavyweight.
The stakes here are high in a thin heavyweight division. Nelson desperately needs a win to avoid his third straight loss and irrelevancy amongst the big men. Barnett needs a convincing victory to show the top brass that he’s still a contender. If The Warmaster can make a statement, he could find himself in a title eliminator sooner than later.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Barnett remains underrated as a striker, but his wrestling and submission game gets the high praise they deserve. Over the course of nearly 20 years, Barnett has picked up almost every trick in the book, and he hasn’t shown too many signs of decline even in his late 30s. The Warmaster can be absolutely suffocating in the clinch and on the ground, where he dishes out devastating punishment.
Big Country is high-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but it seems that he’s forgotten that fact. In fact, it appears he’s forgotten everything on offense with the exception of his overhand right, which carries legitimate one-punch knockout power. What’s worse, the rotund Nelson refuses to block or dodge strikes, and he’s emerged from almost all of his recent fights a battered mess.
Here’s a not-to-subtle secret: bet against Nelson almost every time. He’s too old, slow and predictable. Barnett is too smart to be caught by the overhand right that Nelson is telegraphing, and he should be able to take this fight easily.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson odds. BookMaker Sportsbook offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. The fight takes place at UFC Fight Night 75, on Saturday, September 26, 2015 at Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. The main card will air on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, BookMaker Sportsbook updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
