When it comes to UFC betting there is no question that favorites are more popular but underdogs are usually more profitable. The first event in 2017 was heavily in favor of the favorites as 10 of the 12 fights at UFC Fight Night 103 went to the favorite. One fight was listed as a pick so only one underdog cashed for bettors. It is not unusual to see favorites win as they hit at over 60% in UFC betting but it is unusual to see 10 of 11 come through. Let’s look back at what happened in the first event of 2017, look back at the UFC betting numbers for 2016 and look ahead to the next UFC events.
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The first event of 2017 for the UFC was UFC Fight Night 103and it was almost all chalk as 10 of the 12 fights went to the favorite. The biggest favorite on the card was Yair Rodriguez who was a -450 choice vs. B.J. Penn. The fight was never in doubt as Rodriguez dominated Penn and won by second round TKO.
Joe Lauzon was a slight favorite against Marcin Held and he came through by split decision. Ben Saunders vs. Court McGee was a pick with Saunders getting the win. Sergio Pettis also won as a favorite on the main card as he defeated John Moraga by unanimous decision.
The prelims went mostly to the favorites as well but at least one underdog cashed. Augusto Mendes won by split decision as an underdog vs. Frankie Saenz. The other winners were all favorites with Oleksiy Oliynk winning vs. Viktor Pesta, Tony Martin vs. Alex White, Walt Harris vs. Chase Sherman, Nina Ansaroff vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, Drakkar Klose vs. Devin Powell, Joachim Christensen vs. Bojan Mihaljovic and Cyril Asker vs. Dmitri Smoliakov.
Last year the favorites in UFC betting won 63% of the time which is better than they did in 2015 when they hit at less than 60%. Will 2017 continue the recent trend of favorites performing better against the UFC betting line? Last year there were some big underdogs that cashed as there seemed to be a 2-1 underdog hitting every week. It sure didn’t happen in the first event of 2017.
UFC on FOX 23
The next UFC event takes place on January 28th with Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Pena in the main event. There are four fights on the main card on FOX with the other three having Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal, Andrei Arlvoski vs. Francis Ngannou and Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight. There are five prelims on FS1 as Nate Marquardt takes on Sam Alvey, Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling, Li Jingliang vs. Bobby Nash, Luis Henrique da Silva vs. Jordan Johnson and Alessio Di Chirico vs. Eric Spicely. The three prelims on UFC Fight Pass have Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. John Phillips, Alexandre Pantoja vs. Eric Shelton and J.C. Cottrell vs. Jason Gonzalez.
The odds on the main event at BookMaker.eu have Shevchenko vs. Pena as a pick so we probably won’t have a favorite in that bout unless bettors pick a side. Cerrone is listed as a -160 favorite against Masvidal, Ngannou is a -425 favorite vs. Arlovski and Knight is -160 vs. Caceres. In the prelims we already have lines on some of the bouts with Alvey -150 vs. Marquardt and Assuncao -160 vs. Sterling.
The only big underdog so far is Arlovski against Ngannou and it is hard to see bettors backing the dog in this fight. The only movement among any of the early lines had bettors taking Alvey against Marquardt as that line opened at -145.
UFC 208 and UFC 209
There are also some early lines on UFC 208 and UFC 209. UFC 208 takes place on February 11 in Brooklyn, New York with Holly Holm taking on Germaine de Randamie with the odds a pick. UFC 209 takes place March 4th in Las Vegas with Stephen Thompson listed as a -120 favorite vs. Tyron Woodley while Khabib Nurmagomedov is -170 vs. Tony Ferguson.
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