Former light heavyweight champion “Suga” Rashad Evans – 19-3, 7 KOs, 2 SUBs – will return to the octagon for the first time in nearly two years after tearing his ACL in early 2014. And he’s wasting no time jumping right into the title mix, facing off against the streaking Ryan “Darth” Bader – 19-4, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs. With a light heavyweight championship bout headlining the bout, the matchup between Evans and Bader could determine the next challenger.
CURRENT ODDS
Our online UFC 192 odds currently have Evans as a slight favorite, with a -160 money line. Bader is barely an underdog at +130. In this three-round bout, I’d expect the total to be set at 2.5 rounds at nearly pick’em odds. Prop bets, such as what round the fight will end, are usually released on the morning of fight night. Since BookMaker updates their odds on a daily basis, the lines could shift as more action comes in.
THE LEAD-IN
Evans has always been considered a top fighter at 205, but came up well short a title challenge against Jon Jones in 2012. In his next match, he suffered a shocking defeat to a past-his-peak Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. It marked the first time in his career that Evans had lost two in a row. Suga bounced back with wins over Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen, but has been on the sidelines since November 2013.
Bader seemed destined to be nothing more than an upper echelon 205er, but he’s forced his way into the title picture with four straight wins. His victory over Phil Davis in his last bout gave Bader the signature win he needed to cement his status as a title contender. Current champion Daniel Cormier has even admitted that Bader probably deserves the next shot at the title, and a win over Evans would seal the deal.
THE BREAKDOWN
Although Bader started his UFC career as a standout All-American wrestler from Arizona State University, it’s time to realize Darth as a well-rounded fighter with power and athleticism. His wrestling starts with an explosive double leg takedown, but uses its threat to set up a technical striking game.
Bader has got a crisp jab and an explosive left hook that can double as a defensive counter. On the mat, Bader is excellent controlling from the top, keeping a heavy base while landing heavy shots from the top ride. He is perfectly content to ground and pound in full and half guard, and does enough to keep the ref from standing them up.
When Evans is healthy, he uses his speed and athleticism to dart in and out with combinations. He is a counterpuncher by nature, and has shown one-shot KO power in a few of his fights. Suga is also a great wrestler as well, though his credentials are lacking in comparison to Bader’s. However, he might just be a better MMA wrestler, as he is better in transitioning from striking to grappling.
However, Evans is 35 and coming off a major injury, which does not bode well for a fighter whose game is predicated on athleticism and speed. If this were 2013, Evans would definitely be a much heavier favorite going in. Right now, he’s a huge question mark in a division in need of legitimate contenders.
THE PICK
This is a tough fight to pick, because Evans has been out of the game for so long. Ring rust and natural decline are very real factors. But Evans is also one of the more cerebral fighters in the game, with a very high awareness of how judges are likely going to score the fights. I think that we’ll see that a lot of his trademark speed is still intact, which makes him much too fast for Bader. The pick is Evans to win a close unanimous decision.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Evans vs. Bader odds. BookMaker offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. Their championship bout is scheduled for UFC 192, which takes place on October 3, 2015, at the Toyota Center in Houston. The main card is scheduled for pay-per-view
starting 10 p.m. ET, following the prelims on FOX Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, Bookmaker updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
