Joe Benavidez – 22-4, 6 KOs 9 SUBs – is in an awkward spot in the UFC’s flyweight division. The Team Alpha Male fighter is 9-2, inside the octagon, and both of those losses have come against the division’s champ, Demetrious Johnson. While he’s clearly a top flyweight, there’s not many who’s clamoring for a third matchup between the two. However, Benavidez could inch closer with a win over Ali Bagautinov – 13-3, 5 KOs, 4 SUBs – in their UFC 192 matchup.
CURRENT ODDS
Our current online UFC 192 odds have Benavidez as a big favorite, with a -335 money line. Bagautinov is nearly a 3-to-1 underdog at +275. In this three-round bout, I’d expect the total to be set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being the heavy favorite. Prop bets, such as what round the fight will end, are usually released shortly before fight night, so make sure to check back in at BookMaker for the full array of odds to bet on.
CAN BENAVIDEZ EARN ANOTHER SHOT?
Since losing to Johnson for a second time in December 2013, Benavidez has reeled off three straight wins, beating Tim Elliot, Dustin Ortiz and John Moraga. However, he’s probably still a few fights away from a third shot at Johnson, who recently demolished consensus No. 1 contender John Dodson.
Bagautinov also challenged Johnson fro the belt and got beaten in a lopsided unanimous decision. To make matters worse, he failed a post-fight drug test that resulted in a yearlong suspension from the UFC. The fight against Benavidez marks his first fight in 16 months. Prior to the loss, the Dagestani native had won 11 in a row in regional competition and his first three UFC fights.
For Benavidez to earn another shot, he’d have to beat Bagautinov and then put away a few other contenders. Personally, I’d like to see him face Dodson, Kyoji Horiguchi or former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. At 31 years old, the window for Benavidez to make another title run is slowly closing, making each fight more important than ever.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Benavidez started out his MMA career as a wrestle-grappler with raw power. But now, he’s evolved into one of the best strikers in the weight classes. He loves to switch stances but favors fighting from the southpaw position, where he throws a crippling straight left and right hook. His kicks come at all levels, and Benavidez excels at mixing them into combinations.
Wrestling is still one of Benavidez’ best assets, although his takedown defense is not at the level of his offensive freestyle game. But he is very good in transition, as he’s shown in notching lightning quick submissions against opponents who have left limbs exposed for a second too long.
Bagautinov is one of the bigger fighters in the division, and he’s slowly evolving his game around his size. Because he’s not as fast as the other flyweights, he’s made up for it by getting ahold of his opponents and putting his hands on them. However, the Dagestani native does not have the endless gas tanks as many of his 125-pound peers do, and that is a huge liability in a division known for its speed and pace.
I see Benavidez proving why he’s still one of the best in the world at flyweight. He’s simply too fast and technical for Bagautinov, who will struggle to keep up in a high-paced fight. Benavidez should pull away in the third round and notch a convincing unanimous decision.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Benavidez vs. Bagautinov odds. BookMaker offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. Their championship bout is scheduled for UFC 192, which takes place on October 3, 2015, at the Toyota Center in Houston. The main card is scheduled for pay-per-view
starting 10 p.m. ET, following the prelims on FOX Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, Bookmaker updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
