It is finally time to make a prediction for Saturday’s fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor. Most bettors have been taking McGregor to win the fight, but money is starting to show up late on Mayweather. There are a number of props that look interesting and some could have some value. Let’s take a look at a bold prediction for the fight and also look at a bold prediction for one of the props.
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Fight Outcome Bold Prediction
Because this matchup is one between a great boxer and a great MMA fighter, many people believe something bizarre will happen during the fight. I don’t think that will be the case, as both men have too much riding on the fight to do something stupid. Mayweather is now listed as a -550 favorite after the odds dropped down to less than -500 earlier this week. The public is pounding McGregor, as more than 90% of the wagers have been on McGregor. The wiseguys are starting to show up and bet Mayweather, so the line on this fight might end up at -600 or more before all is said and done.
Taking Mayweather to win is definitely not a bold prediction because most experts believe he will win. What is bold is taking McGregor to knock down Mayweather and that is what I am going to do. McGregor has been making a lot of bold claims about how he is going to win this fight but the interesting part to me is that McGregor has made bold claims in the past and he has delivered. McGregor’s comments on the size of the gloves are what caught my eye.
“He made an error with 8 oz gloves; I have the power to end this in one round.” McGregor said in the press conference. “I’m very happy with the 8 oz gloves, keep your hands up, keep your hands down I don’t care, I’ll break through whatever is in front of me.”
I think the bold prediction is to take the plus money on McGregor to knock down Mayweather. It is also a prediction that gives us a little bit of protection in case Mayweather comes back to win the fight. The current odds list Mayweather to be knocked down at +310. I realize that those odds are not as high as the +400 on McGregor to win the fight, but I think it is possible that Mayweather gets knocked down and still comes back to win the fight. This way, we get a win if McGregor simply finds a way to get a knock down against Mayweather.
Boxing Odds
Conor McGregor +400
Floyd Mayweather -550
Rounds 8.5 (under -135)
Fight Prop Bold Prediction
Why not take a shot with a big payoff and go for McGregor to win this fight in Round 1 or in Round 2? If McGregor is going to win, he will probably have to win the fight early and if we take McGregor’s bold talk seriously, then there is definitely a chance that the fight will end early, with McGregor winning. The odds on McGregor winning early give us a lot of value. McGregor is listed at +2200 to win in Round 1 and +2200 to win in Round 2. I will take a shot at McGregor winning this fight early.
Fight Notes
Mayweather is 40-years old and unbeaten at 49-0, and he has 26 knockouts in his career. McGregor is 29-years old and he is 21-3 in MMA with 18 knockouts. McGregor will have a two-inch reach advantage. Mayweather will not have fought in 714 days, nearly two years; the longest layoff in his career.
Mayweather has a plus-24 in CompuBox plus/minus ratings. His 43 percent connect percentage is the best among all active boxers. His opponents connect just 19 percent of the time. Mayweather has not won by stoppage since 2011.
McGregor landed 36 percent of his punches in 10 UFC fights. He has never been knocked down or knocked out in UFC action. McGregor has seven wins by knockout since 2013.
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How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. Mayweather vs. McGregor takes place on Saturday, August 26, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight will air live on pay-per-view.
