Patrick Holohan - 12-1-1, 1 KO, 8 SUBs - is getting another home match at UFC Fight Night 76 this Saturday. “The Hooligan” is slated for a flyweight matchup in his native Dublin against American Louis Smolka - 9-1, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs - in a bout between fighters with 3-1 UFC records.
Let’s go through the odds, what’s at stake and the smart pick for this tilt.
CURRENT ODDS
Our UFC Fight Night 76 odds currently list Holohan as a slight underdog, with a -105 money line. Smolka comes barely clocks in as a favorite at -115. The round total for this three-round bout is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -180 and the under at +155. Prop bets are usually released on the morning of fight night, with live betting available after each fight starts.
THE LEAD-IN
Holohan is a teammate of Irish superstar Conor McGregor, and he’s got two straight wins since his first career loss at the hands of Chris Kelades at UFC Fight Night 54. But he’s bounced back nicely with consecutive decision wins over Shane Howell and Vaughan Lee. Prior to the UFC, Holohan logged time in Chaos Fighting Championships and CC against regional competition.
Smolka is also on a two-fight win streak since losing to former title challenger Chris Caraiso at UFC Fight Night 40. The Hawaiian native has rebounded with a knockout win over Richie Vaculik and a decision over Ireland’s Neil Seery. Like Holohan, Smolka has spent time in regional promotions, with experience in KOTC and Pacific Xtreme Combat.
The flyweight bout will open up the main card portion of the night. Because the 125-pound class is so thin, a win could put either fighter in line against a top-15 opponent. With fresh challengers needed at the top, an exciting victory could make a huge statement for the victor. With both fighters in their 20s, they’ve got time to develop.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Holohan can do a bit of everything, with a good inside-out striking approach, aggressive submissions and solid wrestling. He’s most dangerous on the ground, as intimated by his eight submission finishes in 12 career victories. From his back, he’s very active and can chain together submission attempts smoothly. Where he could use work is his top game, where he struggles to keep opponents grounded.
Smolka is a rangy standup artist that throws a high volume of punch-kick combinations, but his lack of power and defense makes him vulnerable in extended exchanges. Like Holohan, the Hawaiian is relatively well-rounded, but the difference here is that Smolka isn’t as polished on the ground.
For Smolka to come through as the favorite, he’ll want to keep this fight standing and avoid Holohan’s web of submissions. But even in the standup, I feel like Holohan can take advantage of the holes in Smolka’s defense. In front of a fired up Dublin crowd, I’m expecting Paddy to power his way to victory in a three round decision. The safest bet here is the over, as flyweights at the UFC level tend to go the distance.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Patrick Holohan vs. Louis Smolka odds. BookMaker Sportsbook offers daily updates to moneylines, totals, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. The bout takes place at UFC Fight Night 76 on Saturday, October 24, 2015 at the 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland. The entire card is expected to stream on UFC Fight Pass.
Don’t forget to check in during fight night to get live odds. During each fight, BookMaker Sportsbook updates their odds in real-time, so you can keep betting as each fight unfolds on live television. It’s a great way to hedge your bets should you fall behind. With our mobile platform, it’s never been easier to bet on UFC events.
