The UFC will once again attempt to put together one of the biggest fights possible: longtime featherweight champ Jose Aldo – 25-1, 14 KOs, 2 SUBs – will meet brash Irish superstar Conor McGregor – 18-2, 16 KOs, 1 SUB – now an interim champion, at UFC 194 in Las Vegas.
The fight is expected to eclipse 1 million pay-per-view buys, a feat the promotion has accomplished just a handful of times.
CURRENT ODDS
Because of the buzz surrounding this fight, our UFC odds have listed money lines for McGregor-Aldo. While McGregor was an underdog in their first scheduled fight, he now opens as a -175 favorite. The Brazilian champion – a top-3 pound-for-pound fighter – is a slight underdog at +145. I’d expect the over/under in this five-round championship fight to be set at 1.5 rounds, as McGregor is making a habit of finishing fights early.
NO RESPECT FOR ALDO
I’ll admit that I’m surprised by the opening odds. Jose Aldo is the only featherweight champion the UFC has ever known, and he hasn’t lost in nearly 10 years. He’s on an insane 18-fight winning streak dating back to 2006, a streak that includes seven title defenses.
“Scarface” has beaten the best the 145-pound class has to offer, with a resume that boasts wins over names like Chad Mendes – twice – the Korean Zombie, Ricardo Lamas, Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar. Even more impressive is the fact that all of those victories weren’t even that close.
What’s more, Aldo is just 28 years old and squarely in his prime. He’s still a supreme athlete with explosive ability, and has shown no sign of decline in his recent fights.
So why is McGregor favored? There are a few reasons. First, he’s the hottest featherweight in the world. “The Notorious” has yet to lose in the octagon, and is currently on a six-fight tear in the UFC, with five of those coming by way of knockout. That’s a streak that includes some top-10 fighters, like Max Holloway, Dustin Poirier and former title challenger Chad Mendes.
But more importantly, it’s how he’s been winning. McGregor is overwhelming accomplished fighters with a flashy brand of striking that’s as powerful as it’s unpredictable. He’s also huge for the weight class, carrying a natural size advantage over nearly everyone in the division. And his athleticism rivals Aldo’s, making him a very dangerous man indeed.
Lastly, McGregor has a huge, international fan base that’s likely betting loads on the Irishman. That is going to affect the lines and make him more expensive. The headlines he’s generated has inspired betting confidence, and oddsmakers are reflectin that.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PICK
Despite being knocked out in the second round, Chad Mendes exposed a few big flaws in McGregor’s game. Chief among them is that McGregor does not possess great takedown defense. Also, he’s much too confident in his chin, as he dropped his hands and came straight forward, allowing Mendes to connect with some monster shots.
Aldo is primarily a striker, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot for a few takedowns. He’s not an elite wrestler by any means, but he’s got good timing on his shots and changing levels would keep the interim champion guessing. And if McGregor gets too cocky and drops his hands against Aldo, he’s simply asking for a world of hurt. There’s a reason that Aldo’s been the champ for so long, and McGregor is about to find out why. The pick is Aldo to win a unanimous decision.
HOW TO BET
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