UFC betting online: In 2005, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua - 22-10, 19 KOs, 1 SUB - and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - 21-6, 6 KOs, 6 SUBs - met in the fabled Pride ring and produced a Fight of the Year, with Rua taking a thrilling unanimous decision.
Now, the two will meet more than a decade later at UFC 190, but the stakes are far different this time around.
CURRENT ODDS
Our UFC 190 odds for Rua-Nogueira have Nogueira as the favorite, with a minus-XXX money line. Rua currently sports a plus+XXX money line. The over/under is typically listed a few days before the fight, and I’d expect this to be set at 2.5 rounds with the over being the slightly bigger favorite.
TIMES HAVE CHANGED
When Rua and Nogueira first met, “Shogun” was arguably the best light heavyweight in the world, and Nogueira wasn’t too far behind. But it’s been a long time since either man was considered a serious player at 205, and both have struggled in the octagon.
Since losing his UFC debut to Forrest Griffin in 2007, Shogun has been a sub .500 fighter – much to the disappointment of his many fans from the Pride era. Though most of his losses have come some of the best in the division – like Jon Jones, Alexander Gustaffson and Lyoto Machida – he’s looked far from the killer he was in Japan. I’d go as far as saying that his last win that meant anything was a KO of Forrest Griffin in 2011.
Nogueira hasn’t fared much better, going 4-3 with losses to elite guys like Ryan Bader, Phil Davis and Anthony Johnson. He has seemed to age a bit more gracefully then Rua, but he was absolutely destroyed by Johnson in his last bout a year ago at UFC on Fox 12. At 39 years old, rebounding from being KO’d into oblivion by a younger fighter is a tough ask, even for a vet like Lil’ Nog.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PICK
Although he’s still only 33 years old, Rua looks completely shot. The man has been in the pro fight game since 2002, and there can’t be too much tread left on his tires after the countless wars he’s survived. More alarming than his 1-4 record in his past five fights is how Rua has been losing – he’s been knocked out in consecutive fights, suggesting that his chin is cracked.
Nogueira has looked a bit more durable as of late, although he’s six years the senior of Rua. Despite getting knocked out by Johnson, he’s fought to decision in all of his other UFC fights with the exception of a first-round TKO victory over Tito Ortiz in 2011. What’s more, his cardio appears to be intact, and that will make a big difference against Shogun, who more often than not is gasping for air with his hands on his hips by the end of the second round.
I expect Nogueira emerge from a back-and-forth first round as the fresher fighter, and pull away from Shogun in the second and third. He’s never been a finisher, so a decision is likely.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Rua vs. Nogueira odds. Bookmaker offers daily updates to money lines, over/under, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. The bout takes place at UFC 190 on August 1, 2015 at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on FOX Sports 1 kicking off at 7 p.m. ET.
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