Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson - 19-3, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs - is one of the hottest fighters in the UFC’s most stacked division. The lightweight has reeled off six straight wins and will try to reach seven when he faces off against Brazilian Edson Barboza - 16-3, 10 KOs, 1 SUB - next week at the TUF 22 Finale. BookMaker has gifted us with early odds for this fight - which carries weighty title implications.
TUF 22 Finale odds at BookMaker.eu
Tony Ferguson -150
Edson Barboza +120
Over/under at 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +135
WHAT’S AT STAKE
With a 9-1 UFC record, Ferguson is ready to fight the best lightweights in the world. He was originally slated to face Khabib Nurmagomedov in a high stakes matchup that could have plausibly been a title eliminator, but an injury to the Dagestani fighter has changed the narrative. Now, Ferguson gets a tough, but not elite, opponent in Edson Barboza.
The change spares Ferguson from having to deal with Nurmagomedov’s intimidating wrestling. But it also takes away from some of the possible rewards for El Cucuy. Beating Nurmagomedov - who is ranked No. 3 by the UFC - would have been the signature win that Ferguson needs to stake a claim as a legitimate title challenger. That being said, the task of beating Barboza is not much easier.
At 29, Barboza has proven to be one of the better lightweights on the roster, with impressive wins over Danny Castillo, Bobby Green and the previously undefeated Paul Felder. In fact, the UFC has the Brazilian ranked at No. 6, while Ferguson is two spots behind at No. 8. However, you’d be hard-pressed to find any major MMA media outlet ranking Barboza higher than Ferguson.
In the past two years, Barboza’s only losses have come against Michael Johnson, who is quietly a top-5 fighter at lightweight, and Donald Cerrone, who is the current challenger to champion Donald Cerrone. If he can derail Ferguson’s winning streak, it would be nearly impossible to deny him a high profile fight in the near future.
FIGHT ANALYSIS
Barboza and Ferguson are both amazing athletes with speed and power. Ferguson is a better all-around fighter, while Barboza has the edge in terms of striking prowess. But El Cucuy has a major advantage in terms of style. Barboza has never responded well to pressure, and his defense is suspect.
Those vulnerabilities do not bode well for his matchup with Ferguson, who loves to come forward and throw blindingly fast combinations. Ferguson has some of the fastest hands in the division, and you can bet he’ll hurt the Brazilian with a few well-timed shots.
THE SMART PLAYS
The odds at BookMaker.eu are predicting a close fight, and I’m inclined to agree. But Barboza is going in on a shortened training camp against a talented fighter who appears to be peaking. Take Ferguson to win. The under on 2.5 rounds is also a great value, as both men hit hard enough to have the confidence that this fight ends earlier than expected.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale takes place Friday, December 11, 2015 at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will stream live on FOX Sports 1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
