Brazilian prospect Tiago Trator – 19-5-2, 7 KOs, 6 SUBs – will fill in for Andre Fili to fight Clay Collard – 14-6, 8 KOs, 2 SUBs – at UFC 191. Trator will have less than a month to prepare for the fight. Both featherweights are in desperate need of a win as relative UFC newcomers trying to earn stability with the promotion.
CURRENT ODDS
Our online UFC 191 odds have Collard as the favorite going into the bout, with a -135 money line. Trator is a slight underdog as +115. The total for this three-round bout is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -140 and the under at +120. Prop bets, like what round the fight will end, are typically released on fight night, so remember to check back in for the latest updates.
LET’S GO PROSPECTING
The 22-year old Collard rode a five-fight unbeaten streak in the Showdown Fights promotion to earn his UFC call-up. However, he’s 1-2 inside the octagon, with his only win coming against the unheralded Alex White.
To be fair, his debut loss came against Max Holloway, who is now a legitimate title contender in the division. But his most recent loss against an unknown Gabriel Benitez suggests that Collard could be in over his head.
Trator was successful in his UFC debut in July 2014, earning a decision over Akbarh Arreola. The win capped a 10-fight winning streak dating back to his time in Brazil’s Jungle Fight promotion. But at UFC Fight Night 61 in February, he was knocked out in the first round by Mike de la Torre, giving the 28-year old Brazilian his first loss in three years.
Collard in particular needs to fight as if his job is on the line. Although he’s still extremely young, starting your UFC career 1-3 is a good way to get cut from the promotion. The featherweight division is absolutely loaded, and the fat is constantly being trimmed from the division. Trator is probably has a bit more job stability, but losing to Collard would make him completely irrelevant in the meantime.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Collard is a fan-friendly fighter, with an aggressive style built on a steady stream of combinations. He’s a solid offensive wrestler as well, although he could probably benefit from a more seamless blend of takedowns and striking. Although he’s young, he’s far from raw, but there is plenty of improvements he can make.
Trator is powerful and athletic, and he combines good standup game with above average jiu-jitsu skills. While he’s easily baited into brawls, his physical tools are well suited to the task. Squarely in his athletic prime, it’s plausible the Brazilian could reach the top-15 with a few more fights.
Collard loves to push the pace, and instinctually presses forward against his opponents. That’s not a smart tactic against Trator, who has proven to be a very good counter striker. Plus, the American is still maturing physically and mentally as a fighter, while Trator is fully developed. At +115, Trator is a fantastic value even as a late replacement.
HOW TO BET
Sign into BookMaker to get the latest odds for Clay Collard vs. Tiago Trator, which takes place on Saturday, September 5, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. FOX Sports 1 will televise the prelims starting 8 p.m. ET, with the main card airing on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET. Bookmaker’s MMA odds includes money lines, totals, prop bets and more.
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