On Saturday night, Holly Holm entered her fight with Ronda Rousey as a +948 underdog in our sportsbook. Then, Holm shocked the world by not only beating the previously invincible champion, but completely outclassing her. Count me among the suckers who thought that Rousey was pretty much a lock. Odds for a rematch have already been posted, and Rousey is still a favorite.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Rematch odds:
Holly Holm +155
Rousey -172
ODDS ANALYSIS
I just don’t get why Rousey’s favored. Holm won easily and proved to be a nightmare matchup for Ronda. The flaws that Holm exposed in Rousey cannot be fixed in a single fight camp. I guess the one argument you could make for the second fight to go differently is that Rousey’s outside commitments had reached unprecedented levels. Between all the media obligations and movie roles, did Rousey have as much time and energy to train as hard as she should have?
THE BIGGEST UPSET IN UFC HISTORY
Holly Holm used Rousey’s pathological aggression against her, masterfully keeping her at distance and luring her into brutal straight lefts. The one knock against Rousey coming into the bout was that her standup game appeared sloppy in her recent fights. “The Preacher’s Daughter” exposed that flaw brilliantly, executing crisp striking combinations that exacerbated Rousey’s inefficiency on the feet. There was no way the odds at BookMaker.eu could have predicted this.
What’s more, Holm’s size and athleticism was a huge factor. For once, Rousey could not catch and physically bully an opponent. Holm shrugged her off the clinch, circled out of danger and left Rousey swinging at air. Rowdy was able to get her on the ground in the first to set up her infamous armbar, but Holm easily escaped and got backed to her feet. And in a stunning reversal of fortune, Holm even took Rousey to the ground near the end of the frame.
Ronda’s defense was absolutely horrible at best. She showed zero head movement in exchanges, getting cracked over and over again. Her inability to adjust her tactics made her look one-dimensional and ultimately led to her demise. Of course, nobody can quite understand how difficult it is to fight in a cage, but it’s puzzling as to why she kept blindly rushing into Holly’s punches when she was clearly getting lit up each time.
Even more disturbing for Ronda was her lack of conditioning. She was gasping for air by the end of the first round. She’s never had to dig deep into her gas tank, and it’s frankly a bit shocking that such a dominant champion would be completely winded after a few minutes. It could mean a lot of things. My assumption is that her obligations as a superstar took away from her training camp. Another factor is the huge shots she ate, which took a lot out of her.
PRIDE GOETH BEFORE THE FALL
Now, despite the fact that Holly is the new champion, all questions surround Rousey. How will she bounce back from this setback? It wasn’t just a loss in the octagon, it was a shattering of her aura. This is a fighter who was getting props from the likes of Lebron James and making appearances on Ellen and the Jimmy Kimmel show. She just won ESPN’s Fighter of the Year Award. Her UFC Embedded episode led with stars like Mark Wahlberg and Demi Lovato singing her praises.
Rousey was without a doubt the biggest female athlete on the planet. And falling from the top of the world has bigger consequences than simply losing a fight. But if we know one thing about Ronda, it’s that she is insanely competitive. With more motivation than ever, I have a feeling she’ll come back a monster.
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