Neither Stefan Struve or Jared Rosholt have the ceilings to capture the heavyweight belt. But that doesn’t mean their fight this Saturday at UFC 193 is without significance.
Both men can be considered on the cusp of the division’s upper tier, and a victory could establish one of them as a respectable gatekeeper to the heavyweight elite. Let’s break down the fight and odds.
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
UFC 193 odds at BookMaker.eu
Heavyweights
JARED ROSHOLT +105
STEFAN STRUVE -135
OVER/UNDER: 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
There was a point in Struve’s career where he had won four in a row, creeping into the top 10 and the title picture. Then he was brutally knocked out in consecutive fights by Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem, then suffered a heart condition that threatened his career altogether. However, he proved that he’s still got some fight left by beating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his most recent outing.
At 27, Struve is still a baby in the context of the aging heavyweight division, but he’s already a 15-fight veteran inside the octagon and has more than 30 pro fights. He’s not a prospect, and can be described as a young veteran. However, there are some serious flaws in his game that has held the Dutchman back.
First and most frustrating is his inability to capitalize on his seven foot frame. He doesn’t fight nearly as long as he should. Although he’s agile and flexible for his size, he only throws a sporadic number of kicks that could keep opponents at bay. While he’s got a long jab, he’s far too easily baited into brawls and is happy to oblige rather than keep fighters at the end of his punches.
Struve should not be brawling at all, because every heavyweight is well aware of his weak chin and porous defense. Mark Hunt walked straight through Struve’s combination and broke his jaw. What’s more, Struve has no offensive wrestling game to speak of, although he’s dangerous off his back, using his long legs to sink in submissions.
Rosholt is a three-time NCAA All-American wrestler from Oklahoma State University, and that base has led to consistent success in the octagon - albeit against mid-tier opponents. Once he gets ahold of a fighter, Rosholt is absolutely relentless in getting the fight to the ground. He seamlessly chains together takedown attempts, and is superb in dropping levels from the clinch.
However, Rosholt has minimal standup skills, and that’s being generous. While his strikes have power, he has never looked comfortable in exchanges nor fluid in exchanges. Despite his years in MMA, he hasn’t even developed setup strikes for his considerable wrestling skills.
This is a compelling matchup because Rosholt is strongest where Struve is weakest, and vice versa. It all comes down to who can dictate where the fight takes place, and that is something Struve has always struggled to do. Rosholt, a decorated wrestler, should be able to get this fight to the ground early and often.
THE SMART PLAYS
While Rosholt will be outmatched on the feet, he should also be able to take Struve down without too much difficulty. From there, he’ll be able to control “Skyscraper” and fend off submission attempts from the better part of three rounds. As a minor underdog, Rosholt to win is a fantastic value. The over on 1.5 rounds is probably the safest bet you can make, as Rosholt is a grinder who can take a punch.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. And with our simple payout system, collecting your winnings is quick, easy and painless. UFC 193 takes place this Saturday, November 14, 2015 at the Etihiad Stadium in Melbourne, Austrialia. The card will be televised on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, with the FOX Sports 1 prelims beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
