Two of the best submission fighters in the world will face off this Saturday when No. 6 ranked Demian Maia - 21-6, 3 KOs, 10 SUBs - meets Iceland’s Gunnar Nelson - 14-1, 3 KOs, 10 SUBs on the main card of UFC 194. If you’re one of the many fans that prefer a standup battle over a grappling chess match, this might just be the match that makes you appreciate the beauty of the ground game.
UFC 194 odds at BookMaker.eu
Demian Maia -145
Gunnar Nelson +115
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
ODDS ANALYSIS
The money lines on this fight have remained stagnant for the past few weeks, suggesting that either the action on both fighters have been even or there’s been relatively few bets on this matchup overall. Maia is a far more proven fighter against high level competition, accounting for his status as a favorite. Because both men are grinders, the over is a significant favorite as this matchup projects to go to the final bell.
THE STAKES
Maia is on a short list of credible title contenders, although at 38 years old the window is closing. He has far more to lose against a prospect like Nelson, who is extremely dangerous but doesn’t carry the name value of some of his past opponents. Nelson has an opportunity to join the ranks of the elite by beating Maia, whose only losses at 170 have come against Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Ask any UFC fighter who has the best jiu-jitsu in MMA, and Maia’s name would inevitably enter the conversation. The Brazilian is a multiple time world champion in the BJJ, and he is perhaps the most well-credentialed grappler in the sport’s history. The Brazilian’s striking is adequate, but he’s not winning any fights on the feet. Maia’s standup game exists only to get close enough to lock up his foes, and he never stays at range for long.
Maia’s superb chain wrestling is often overlooked. Once he gets ahold of his opponents, he sticks to them like glue, endlessly transitioning until he drags the fight to the mat. From there, he’s nearly impossible to shake off. Only a high level grappler has the proper knowledge to fend off his relentless submission attempts.
The Brazilian is a grinder in the truest sense of word. It’s only a matter of time before Maia’s wrestling and never-ending submission attempts sap the will out of his opponents. In Dana White’s own words, Maia famously “Out-Fitch’d” John Fitch, one of the best known grinders of the era.
Nelson is a talented jiu-jitsu specialist as well, but many forget that he was a high level karateka before he ever took up BJJ. That striking base is still evident in the cage, as the Icelander bounces around on the perimeter to set up powerful straight rights and round kicks. Much like Lyoto Machida, he draws people in with his elusive footwork and makes them eat coutners.
On the mat, Nelson is an expert in foundational BJJ. His punishing ground-and-pound sets up him up to pass, mount, take the back and submit - in that order. It’s simple, but it’s highly effective. With 10 submissions in 14 career victories, it’s a formula that few have been able to stop.
THE SMART PLAYS
One of Nelson’s biggest drawbacks is his size and strength. Although he’s found success at 170, it’s obvious that he could compete at 155. Maia is a former middleweight title challenger, and will be the bigger, stronger fighter on fight night. I don’t think Nelson has the power to fend him off for three rounds, and he isn’t talented enough on the feet to knock the Brazilian out before he gets taken down.
PREDICTION: Maia wins by unanimous decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor takes place Saturday, December 12, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will air on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
