There are big fights, and there are fights that feel larger than life. This Saturday’s matchup between featherweight champion Jose Aldo and interim titleholder Conor McGregor is the latter.
It features two of the world’s best fighters in their primes, representing fight-crazed countries and pits one of the biggest personalities in the sport against one of the best MMA has ever seen. After endless buildup and painful delays, it’s finally happening. Let’s jump into the odds and fight breakdown.
UFC 194 odds at BookMaker.eu
Conor McGregor -165
Jose Aldo +140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s difficult to predict which way this will swing in the final few days leading up to fight night. Early action was heavy on McGregor, but I’m thinking that Aldo recoups a few points with gamblers who remember just how good the Brazilian is. In this five-round title unification bout, the 2.5 round over/under is near pick’em, given how aggressive McGregor is and how deadly Aldo can be.
THE STAKES
There’s the unified belt, for starters. Then there’s the cultural impact. McGregor and Aldo are superstars in their native countries and national pride is on the line. Aldo has been the only 145-pound champion the UFC has ever seen, and his undefeated UFC record on the line. However, much like Ronda Rousey, McGregor has put himself on a pedestal built on braggadocio, trash talk and lofty claims. If he can’t back up his many words, he’s got a long way to fall.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Let’s start with McGregor. He’s looked like a killer in his past four fights, ending them all before the start of a third round. “Notorious” is 6-0 inside the octagon, with wins over impressive names like Max Holloway, a blue-chip prospect, former top-10 fighter Dustin Poirier, and two-time title challenger Chad Mendes.
The Irish superstar has an ultra-aggressive fight style that nobody has been able to deal with. He is relentless with his kicks - he loves the side kick, but he won’t hesitate to throw hook, axe and spinning back kicks to the body and head at any time. The unpredictable nature of his feet makes his boxing all the more potent. He has fight-ending power in both fists, and throws clean, powerful punches.
But Mendes also exposed a number of flaws in McGregor’s game. First was a huge deficiency in takedown defense. Yes, Mendes is one of the best takedown artists in the game, but he was completely gassed out and still managed to take McGregor down with ease. And when Mendes was on top, McGregor offered little offense from his back. He was strong enough to power right back up against a tired Mendes, but in the first round McGregor was effectively neutralized on the mat.
Secondly, McGregor was far too confident in his chin. At times, he dropped his hands and came straight forward, allowing Mendes to tag him with heavy shots. At 27, McGregor has yet to show any cracks in his ability to take a shot, but his willingness to eat punches flush cannot be good in the long term. Dropping your hands and screaming at your opponent is a good way to get yourself and the crowd fired up, but it is not a sustainable way to win fights.
Because that sort of confidence will get you knocked out against Aldo. The longtime Brazilian champion is a Muay Thai machine with picture perfect technique and explosive power. Where McGregor’s standup is creative and flashy, Aldo’s is efficient and ruthless. “Scarface’s” highlight reel is filled with brutal finishes that come in a blink of an eye.
Aldo’s wrestling also tends to get overlooked. Over the years, his elite athleticism has allowed him to build an above-average game. He shoots a superb double-leg, and when he is on top he stays heavy and possesses smooth passes. I’d expect him to at least threaten McGregor with takedowns to keep him guessing.
The knocks on Aldo have been his output and conditioning. Many have become frustrated with Aldo because it appears like he’s been cruising to victories recently. He’ll play it safe instead of going for the kill when he’s clearly outclassing an opponent. The lack of output has cost him some rounds. And it’s a well-known fact that Aldo is usually tired by the championship rounds, where we’ve seen a plethora of challengers mount furious comebacks.
THE SMART PLAYS
I think McGregor fights too emotional, trying to rile up opponents with antics inside the ring. It’s an effective tactic for drawing them into firefights, but Aldo is too smart and experienced to get caught up in the games. On the feet, I give a slight edge to McGregor, whose power and unpredictability presents a style that Aldo has never seen.
However, Aldo’s speed and power on the feet will offer plenty of challenges for McGregor as well. And there is a huge discrepancy in mat skills in favor of the reigning champion. On paper, Aldo has more tools at his disposal, and I think that’ll all the difference. Both men should be emotionally and physically drained in the later rounds, and Aldo’s experience will take over.
I’ll take the over on this fight as well. While McGregor will be looking to brawl for a quick finish, Aldo’s savvy will prevent him from succeeding. Both men are tough enough to make it to the final bell.
PREDICTION: Aldo to win by unanimous decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor takes place Saturday, December 12, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will air on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
