23-year old Max Holloway is the youngest fighter in UFC history to reach 10 victories - and he’s only getting better. Now, the Hawaiian rides a seven-fight winning streak into his bout with Jeremy Stephens, who’s made 21 appearances under the UFC banner since his debut in 2007. Unsurprisingly, the No. 4 ranked Holloway is a huge favorite going into the bout.
UFC 194 odds at BookMaker.eu
Max Holloway -401
Jeremy Stephens +295
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -160, under +140
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker.eu have shifted in the past few weeks, pushing Holloway more than 25 points further in to favorite territory. I’d only expect Holloway to get more expensive leading up to fight night, as it’s an easily winnable matchup on paper. The over on 2.5 rounds is the more expensive bet, as Holloway isn’t known as a prolific finisher.
THE STAKES
For Holloway, Stephens represents a step back in competition, as his last two fights came against former contender Cub Swanson and the No. 7 ranked Charles Oliveira. Losing to Stephens, who is the UFC’s No. 12 fighter at 145, would be a significant setback for Holloway. Stephens has never cracked the top-10 in the division, but could do so with a shocking upset victory.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Holloway is part of the new generation of fighters who grew up training in all aspects of MMA. His game starts with a foundation of superb fundamentals, from footwork to angles to movement and timing. “Blessed” is a fitting nickname for Holloway, as the fighter possesses speed, athleticism and instincts that you can’t teach.
On the feet, Holloway is comfortable in both stances and will often switch mid-combination. He utilizes his lanky frame well, fighting tall and long with snap to all his strikes. His creativity combined with his high work rate make him a difficult opponent to prepare for. However, his high level of activity does leave him open to get hit a bit too often.
Stephens is coming off a surprising upset over a top-10 opponent in Dennis Bermudez. The spectacular flying knee knockout was probably the highlight of his long career. But “Lil’ Heathen” isn’t a particularly flashy fighter - he’s a heavy hitter that loves to counter.
While Stephens has good combinations and timing, his output remains relatively low. But he’s very good at countering aggressive fighters, planting his feet and timing his go-to left hook-right uppercut combination. With 16 KOs in 24 career victories, his power has to be respected.
The Alliance MMA product will never be a dominant offensive wrestler, but defensively he’s rock solid. It’s extremely tough to get him down, which is good since he offers little submission threat on the mat.
THE SMART PLAY
There’s a reason that Holloway is so heavily favored - he has advantages in every measurable aspect. Holloway is bigger, stronger, faster and better conditioned. On top of that, he’s far more skilled on the feet and on the mat. If Holloway’s stunningly easy win over Cub Swanson is any indication, this should be an easy night for him.
If you’re feeling lucky, the under offers solid value. Holloway is a fighter on an impressive run and seems to be on the verge of hitting a monstrous peak. Getting a finish against an outclassed fighter would be the perfect way to end an excellent 2015.
PREDICTION: Holloway wins by TKO in the third
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor takes place Saturday, December 12, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will air on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
