In a middleweight title eliminator, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will collide with Yoel Romero this Saturday at UFC 194. Coincidentally, the matchup takes place right before champion Chris Weidman defends his belt against Luke Rockhold. While there’s little left to prove for either man as a legitimate contender, the bout is the final step in securing an elusive shot at the belt.
UFC 194 odds at BookMaker.eu
Ronaldo Souza -170
Yoel Romero +145
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Souza is the more seasoned fighter, a former Strikeforce champion and a multiple time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He’s also three years younger than Romero, which is significant considering the fact that Romero is 38 years old. I’d expect Souza’s line to get a bit more expensive as his credentials are hard to ignore. It’s a relatively low over/under at 1.5 rounds, as both men have the ability to finish fights quickly.
THE STAKES
Obviously, a title shot looms for the victor. Romero has the opportunity to become the first Cuban to ever fight for a UFC title. For Jacare, fighting for the belt would be the opportunity to add the ultimate hardware to a decorated trophy case littered with significant championships.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Souza is a classic pressure fighter. Despite his nearly unparalleled credentials in jiu-jitsu, his boxing has evolved into a fearsome aspect of his game. Jacare loves to stalk opponents toward the fence and let go of his fists, which contain knockout power. He’ll also unleash round and spinning back kicks to keep opponents guessing.
In the clinch, Jacare is nearly flawless. His head game is superb, and the knees and uppercuts he throws in short space are ruthless. While his shot takedowns are nothing to write home about, his takedowns from the clinch are immensely effective. And when’s he on top, Jacare is everything you’d expect a world-class grappler to be. In fact, he’s probably one of the best in history in operating from the top ride. He stays heavy, passes smoothly and creates submissions like an artist.
Romero is a special physical specimen. Even at 38 years old, he possesses unreal power and athleticism. His game is built on his explosive ability, as he covers distance in an instant. This is important, because at 5’10” he’s on the stocky side for the division. On the feet, Romero likes to flick side kicks before launching his lethal hands. He’s never been a high output striker, but his fight-ending power more than makes of up for his lack of volume.
A former Cuban Olympian in wrestling, Romero is nearly impossible to stop when he commits to a takedown. His diverse takedown vocabulary includes blast doubles, trips, singles, outside throws and a pretty ankle pick. His takedown defense is solid as well, although not as strong as his offense. Despite his talent in taking opponents down, Romero prefers to let his opponents back up so he can do it all over again, rather than using ground-and-pound.
THE SMART PLAYS
This matchup pits a world-class jiu-jitsu player against an Olympic-level wrestler. But we’ve seen that high-level ground games neutralize each other, leading to a standup affair. And given that both Souza and Romero possess a ton of talent on the feet, I’d expect the majority of the match to be a brutal sparring battle.
In that scenario, I’d have to favor Souza - provided he can get to the third. Romero has a tendency to gas, probably due to his heavily muscled frame - and that will give Souza a tremendous opportunity to score points. However, I feel this matchup is close to a toss-up. The safest play here is the over, as both men are easily durable enough to last past 1.5 rounds.
PREDICTION: Souza to win by split decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor takes place Saturday, December 12, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will air on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
