In a heavyweight matchup with heavy title implications, a surging Andrei Arlovski will meet the No. 3 ranked Stipe Miocic in the co-main event of this Saturday's UFC 195. It's a matchup that could easily determine the next title challenger. What's more, it projects to be a good ol' fashioned heavyweight battle between two men who can slug. Let's break down the odds and the fight.
UFC 195 odds at BookMaker.eu
Andrei Arlovski +200
Stipe Miocic -250
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -150, under +130
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Miocic is a significant favorite, and I expect his line to become more expensive leading up to fight night. His well-rounded skillset makes this a difficult matchup for Arlovksi. Typical of heavyweight bouts, the over/under is a low 1.5 rounds, although the over is the more expensive bet.
THE STAKES
You can tentatively consider this a title eliminator. Arlovski is on a four-fight winning streak and has marketing value as a challenger. Miocic has hovered around the top-5 for a year now, and The Pitbull would be the signature win he needs to cement his first shot at the title. While Junior dos Santos could emerge as next in line with a win over Alistair Overeem, that would only likely happen if Fabricio Werdum keeps his belt against Cain Velasquez.
FIGHT PREVIEW
It appears that the move to Jackson-Wink MMA has paid off for Arlovski. Even at 36, he remains one of the division's best pure athletes. Now, he has the elite coaching to maximize his gifts and limit his vulnerabilities.
The Belarusian has always been a great striker. He doesn't exercise a large vocabulary of strikes, but he is very, very good at the basics. Arlovski sticks with his bread-and-butter 1-2, but the straight right can pile on the damage in a hurry. His snapping low kicks are effective, although he never seems fully committed to taking out an opponent's lead leg in the way that Jose Aldo has.
In terms of grappling, Arlovski is solid offensively and defensively. He'll never be a dominant wrestler, but he can change levels and shoot a double fairly quickly. It's difficult, but not impossible to take him down. He's not a huge threat on the ground though, as he prefers to tie up and initiate a standup instead of threatening with submissions.
Miocic has quietly evolved into one of the most well-rounded heavyweights on the roster. The American is both a former Division I wrestler and a Golden Gloves boxer. An excellent athlete, Miocic's preferred modus operandi is a sprawl-and-brawl, although he will defer to his wrestling if he has a big advantage in that area.
While he doesn't quite have one-punch knockout power, Miocic has plenty of steam on his punches. At his core, he is a stick-and-move fighter, cracking opponents with combinations and then stepping out of range. He works behind a stiff jab and a vicious left hook, and his head-body work is as clean as it gets.
As a wrestler, Miocic is extremely tough to take down. When it comes to securing his own takedowns, he shoots nice singles and doubles. His chain wrestling is somewhat underrated, as he can string together multiple attempts with a single tie-up.
THE SMART PLAYS
While Arlovski and Miocic are nearly equals on the feet, the former champion is outgunned in terms of all-around skills. Miocic is particularly good at challenging his opponents where they are weakest, and I expect him to work his way into the clinch as soon as possible and beat Arlovski up against the cage. Miocic to win is a fairly easy pick.
While I like Miocic's chances to render Arlovski unconscious, I'm not sure it happens before 1.5 rounds. Arlovski has a glass chin, but Greg Jackson always has him equipped with a game plan to best hide it. This fight should go over 1.5 rounds.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. UFC 195 takes place Saturday, January 2, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
