Kelvin Gastelum is getting a quick opportunity to bounce back from a disappointing loss.
Just under two months after a split decision loss to short notice replacement Neil Magny, Gastelum will face veteran Kyle Noke on the main card of UFC 195 this Saturday. Let's break down the fight odds and the smart plays.
UFC 195 odds at BookMaker.eu
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Expect the odds at BookMaker to rightfully peg Gastelum as a big favorite, as he's getting a bounce-back gift from the UFC. While Noke is on a two-fight win streak, he hasn't faced anyone with Gastelum's talent. If the line shifts at all, I'd expect Gastelum to only get more expensive.
THE STAKES
A loss to Noke would be devastating for a much-hyped prospect like Gastelum. Many felt that he was just a few fights away from the title until he lost to Neil Magny - who stepped up with less than two weeks notice. The only reason that Gastelum didn't fall out of the top-10 picture entirely is because Magny is a great prospect in his own right. For Noke, a win over the 24-year old would be his most significant career victory by far.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Gastelum is powerful pressure fighter. He throws ridiculously hard combinations, although his technique could use some work. Still, when his shots land, you can hear the thuds reverberate throughout the arena. His power is still evolving but remains just shy of the one-punch KO variety.
The Arizona native loves to fight in close quarters, given that he's relatively stocky for the weight class. He's comfortable winging hooks from the pocket, but where he excels is in transition. From the pocket to the clinch and the clinch to the ground, Gastelum's athleticism and speed can overwhelm opponents.
Noke is a 13-year veteran, but has never broken through to the top-15 during that time. His inability to turn into a fully three-dimensional fighter has always capped his ceiling. In terms of physical tools, Noke is durable, but not particularly explosive or quick.
He prefers to operate on the feet, but even there he still has plenty of limitations.While the Australian's boxing is solid, there really isn't that much fear in terms of hand speed and power. He does possess a diverse array of kicks, but they lack the strength to do much damage in a vacuum.
THE SMART PLAYS
It's pretty obvious that the UFC is still interested in grooming Gastelum. At 24 years old, he's got plenty of time to emerge as a player in the aging welterweight division. And right now, he needs a win more than anything to regain his confidence after losing to late replacement. That's why the promotion is gifting him with a mid-tier guy like Noke. The easy pick is Gastelum to win.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. UFC 195 takes place Saturday, January 2, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
