Just two years ago, Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada were among the most promising welterweights in the UFC. Now, they could be fighting to keep their jobs this Saturday.
With both men riding two-fight losing streaks, another loss could send a fighter to prelim obscurity or even earn the dreaded pink slip from Dana White.
Bet on UFC 196 odds at BookMaker.eu
Brandon Thatch -314
Siyar Bahadurzada +259
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +105, under -125
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s easy forget that Brandon Thatch was supposed to be a contender by now. While he hasn’t come through on his promise yet, the immense physical tools are still there. That’s probably why he’s such a big favorite in this matchup, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bahadurzada close the gap in the last few days before the fight.
THE STAKES
Is this really a “loser leaves town” match? Probably more so for Bahadurzada than Thatch. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the UFC cut ties with either of them, considering how many fighters have been cut recently. The only cushion these two have is that all their recent losses have come against very good competition.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Thatch has a crowd-pleasing style, built on a championship Muay Thai background. He is relentless and often times spectacularly violent. “Rukus” is comfortable in each stance, and loves to punctuate his technical combinations with thudding round kicks. While he prefers to move forward, Thatch is also excellent at slipping and ripping devastating countershots.
While not a great wrestler, Thatch has a bevy of takedowns that are reminiscent of Cung Le’s San Shou stylings. He can do some work from the top and threaten with submissions, but he offers nothing from his back. His best weapon is probably his pace, as he is well-conditioned training at altitude with Elevation Fight Team in Denver.
Bahadurzada is known for his knockout power, but he tends to rely on it a bit too much. The Afghani native struggles against wrestlers, as he was exposed by Dong Hyun Kim in a one-sided loss. If he can’t improve his takedown defense, the losses should continue to pile up.
THE SMART PLAYS
Although Thatch is known for his standup, I think he plays it safe and avoids Bahadurzada’s one advantage: punching power. Because there is such a clear blueprint here, I don’t see how Thatch doesn’t take at least one round pounding away from top position. And even if Bahadurzada can avoid the mat, Thatch’s ranginess and elite Muay Thai skills are probably too much for the shorter, smaller man.
Take Thatch to win a unanimous decision. Bahadurazada is gonna take a ton of punishment, but he should be able to gut it out to the final bell.
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You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 196 takes place on Saturday, March 5, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.The main card will be televised on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
