While we might not be getting a champion vs. champion bout this Saturday, Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz is one of those big money fights that you just can’t ignore. It’s almost too good to be true - the two best trash talkers on the planet are meeting in a cage and going at it.
Let’s break it down from all angles.
Bet on UFC 196 odds at BookMaker.eu
Conor McGregor -415
Nate Diaz +330
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +155, under -180
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis, so the odds listed here may have changed since this article was written.
THE STAKES
Granted, the stakes are much lower in a McGregor-Diaz matchup. The Irishman was attempting to make history and instead finds himself in a grudge match. Still, he’s drawn so much attention to himself through his bold claims and brash antics that a loss would be exponentially magnified. Remember how the entire world seemed to bask in Rousey’s loss to Holm?
Diaz has the opportunity to do what no other fighter has been able to do: shut McGregor up. There are plenty of people that would love to see the champion get his comeuppance, and if an anti-hero like Diaz can deliver, he’d be elevated to cult status among his many fans.
FIGHT PREVIEW
Much is being made about the fact that McGregor is moving up not one, but two weight classes, but the truth of the matter is that he could probably compete at both lightweight and welterweight. His weight cuts to meet the 145-lb featherweight limit have been notoriously difficult, and McGregor’s team have publicly stated that they don’t want to see their fighter drop down so much.
Listed at 5’8”, McGregor is four inches shorter than Diaz, and that is going to be a factor. Mystic Mac is most comfortable when he is the one dictating distance, and he’s enjoyed fighting smaller men in his past three fights. Dealing with somebody as long and rangy as Diaz presents McGregor some new challenges.
However the Dublin native has a creative, unorthodox style that hasn’t been “figured out” just yet. We’ve seen him sit on his heels and wait to unleash devastating counters and we’ve seen an ultra aggressive version where he’ll throw five different types of karate kicks. As a student of the game, McGregor’s style changes to suit the opponents that he’s fighting. And his one-shot kill power is the great equalizer in any matchup.
Diaz has a huge advantage when it comes to grappling and submissions, but he faces huge hurdles in getting the fight to the mat. He has never been a good, or even adequate wrestler, as he lacks the natural strength and athleticism to take opponents down. The Stockton native is decent at pulling guard, but that’s never really been a great MMA tactic.
Because Diaz lacks the ability to take down McGregor, this fight will likely take place on the feet. Everybody knows that Diaz is an extremely talented boxer, and he can be deadly when he finds the range on his 1-2 combination. However, it seems like he gets tagged in every fight, relying more on his chin than head movement for defense. And while he’s always coming forward, he rarely takes angles.
THE SMART PLAYS
Oddsmakers currently have McGregor as a huge favorite, for good reasons. The first is that Diaz took this fight on 11 days notice. While he is one of the best conditioned athletes on the roster, you have to question what kind of fight shape he’ll be in. This is still a five-round fight, and Diaz has only gone that distance once.
The smart money is on McGregor, although it’s going to cost you a pretty penny. I also like the over on 2.5 rounds at +155. Diaz is one of the most durable fighters on the roster, and his grittiness should get him past the halfway point of the fight.
BET ON UFC FIGHTS NOW
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 196 takes place on Saturday, March 5, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.The main card will be televised on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
