Light heavyweight prospect Corey Anderson is itching for a shot at a top-10 opponent. This Saturday, he could very well earn that right with a victory over the well-regarded Tom Lawlor.
With the need of young talent at 205 pounds, let’s hope that the 26-year old Anderson can take his game to the next level.
Bet on UFC 196 odds at BookMaker.eu
Corey Anderson -275
Tom Lawlor +230
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -220, under +180
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis, so the odds listed here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS ANALYSIS
No surprise that Anderson is the favorite. While he doesn’t have a ton of hype, “Beastin’ 25/8” has quietly become one of the more promising fighters at 205. If there’s any odds movement, I’d expect Anderson’s money line to slide further into chalk territory.
THE STAKES
Currently ranked No. 11, Anderson is on the cusp of breaking into the elite ranks of the division. He certainly looks the part, standing 6’3” with a cut body and outstanding athleticism. His 4-1 UFC record is solid, but he’s in need of a signature win.
While Lawlor doesn’t provide that, the charismatic fighter does have name value as an eight-year octagon veteran. “Filthy” has settled in as a gatekeeper - not quite good enough to hang with the big boys, but plenty capable of beating solid opponents. A win over a prospect like Anderson keeps him relevant at light heavyweight.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
On the feet, Anderson is a stick-and-move fighter in the mold of Frankie Edgar. He is constantly cutting angles and looking to score points through volume. While he’s not as technically sound as Edgar, he is evolving nicely with each fight. He has shown particularly improvement in using his strikes to set up takedowns.
As a former collegiate wrestler, Anderson is extremely comfortable on top. However, instead of hunting for submissions or passing, he’s completely content to pound away from the half guard, a la Randy Couture. He can be particularly punishing from this position, as he bloodied up Jan Blachowicz with ease.
Lawlor has always been a limited boxer at range, preferring to operate from the clinch. From there, “Filthy” lives up to his name, with an assortment of dirty boxing techniques, headfighting and level changes. He did knock out Gian Villante in his last matchup, but let’s not assume that he’s all of a sudden become a good striker.
Where he excels is grinding down opponents on the mat. Also a former collegiate wrestler, Lawlor loves to take down opponents and wear them out. It’s not the most exciting thing to watch, but he makes up for it with his outlandish walks to the cage.
THE SMART PLAYS
Stick with Anderson here. He is the physically superior fighter and has a more diverse skillset. On the feet, he’s much too quick for Lawlor. Anderson’s own wrestling background also cancels out Lawlor’s. Lawlor is as durable as they come, so expect him to make it to the final bell but take his lumps on the way there.
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