In Holly Holm’s own words, “nobody wants to be a one-hit wonder.” And this Saturday, she can follow up her stunning upset of Ronda Rousey with a title defense against Miesha Tate - who many feel is the next best fighter in the division.
So should we be expecting another masterpiece from the Holm?
Bet on UFC 196 odds at BookMaker.eu
Holly Holm -360
Miesha Tate +295
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -205, under +175
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis, so the odds listed here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS TRACKER
Holm’s line has moved 40 points to -360 since opening at -400 a few weeks ago, while Tate’s money line has barely moved from +300 to +295. There’s been a ton of movement on the over/under as well, as the over went from -180 to -205 and the under from +140 to +175.
From this, we can deduct that most of the action is coming in on Tate and the over, driving Holm’s payout up and the over on 2.5 rounds down. I get why people are betting the over, but I’m questioning the people who are betting on Tate. Are they forgetting how awesome Holm looked against Rousey?
THE STAKES
Holm looks like she’s enjoying her newfound fame as the champ who put Ronda Rousey in her place. Now it’s time to see whether she can meet the expectations that come with being a star. Beating Tate also establishes the Holly Holm era of the bantamweight division, which was ruled by Rousey since its inception.
This might just be Tate’s best chance to win a title. Having already been dominated in two tries against Rousey, Tate had to claw and scratch her way through four straight victories to earn her way back into title contention. While Rousey may have had Tate’s number, Holm has a completely different style, which opens up a lot of doors for Tate.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Holm is at her best on the outside, where her superb footwork and counterpunching are most effective. Rushing in on her is a futile tactic, as she’s an expert at circling away from danger and keeping the distance. Her best punch is the straight left, and while it’s not a knockout blow the damage can accumulate quickly.
While Holm’s accomplishments as a boxer are widely celebrated, her best shot is her round kick, which has knocked out several fighters cold. The beauty of it is that she hides the strike behind her punches, throwing it when opponents cannot see it coming.
Tate is one of the most experienced fighters in the division, and is arguably its most game. She’s come from behind to pull out victories in numerous fights, which speaks to her durability and will. Still, she’s probably not as evolved as she should be.
She’s not a great striker, and is far too willing to brawl. And while she can take a punch, her porous defense doesn’t do her any favors. But nobody would mistake Miesha for a striker - she’s a grinder, through and through. Above all, Tate loves to initiate the clinch and drag her opponents to the ground. Once she’s on top, she’s got good passes and solid control. She’s got enough skills to be a submission threat, but Demian Maia she is not.
THE SMART PLAYS
Holm is far too big for Miesha to drag to the mat. If an Olympic judo gold medalist couldn’t take down “The Preacher’s Daughter”, it’s hard to see Tate having much success. Her inability to take down Holm should be the single biggest factor in this fight. Because she will be completely outclassed on the feet by an elite striker in Holm.
I wouldn’t expect this to be half as exciting as Holm-Rousey. Holm’s trademark is patience and counter-punching, and Rousey’s bulldog charges were tailor-made for her style. This should be a much more drawn-out fight, with plenty of clinches throughout. Still, Holm should be able to take a convincing unanimous decision.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 196 takes place on Saturday, March 5, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.The main card will be televised on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
