Jon Jones, widely considered to be the best fighter on the planet, is back in action this Saturday after spending more than a year on the sidelines due to legal issues.
“Bones” will meet No. 6-ranked Ovince St. Preux for the interim championship, but the odds tell the story of a tune-up fight for the former undisputed champ.
Bet on UFC 197 odds at BookMaker.eu
Jon Jones -502
Ovince St. Preux +400
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +180, under -220
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis, so the lines listed here may have changed.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A few sportsbooks opened with Jones as high as a -800 favorite, but his money line quickly came up to -500. In that same time, OSP’s money line has gone down from +500 to +400. This is a bit surprising, since Jones is clearly the superior fighter, but perhaps the rash of high profile upsets is prompting more action on the heavy underdog.
THE STAKES
Anything less than a dominant win for Jones would be a disappointment. While OSP is a top-10 fighter, he’s not the quite the caliber of a Daniel Cormier or Alexander Gustafsson. If he can cruise to wins against guys like Glover Teixeira, Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida, St. Preux *shouldn’t* be a problem.
Furthermore, Bones’ has been in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons for the past year and a half. It’s been awhile since we’ve had anything else to report about him other than spats with his growing spats with the law. A win takes a lot of the focus off of his troubles, and puts the spotlight back onto his generational talents.
ST. PREUX’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Unfortunately for the former collegiate football player, this is going to be really short. I really don’t see any way that OSP can pull this off unless he pulls a Matt Serra-GSP and rocks Jones with a big shot. St. Preux is a big dude with some power, so this is definitely a possibility. But this is a puncher’s chance -- and that’s it.
JONES KEYS TO VICTORY
Take your pick. He could take the easy route and expose OSP’s lack of wrestling, like Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira did. If Bones can land takedowns on Daniel Cormier, he can probably take St. Preux to the ground at will. And when he’s on top, his length lets him get off lethal shots from the guard that quickly cuts opponents up.
Or, he could utilize his length and creativity on the feet. While Jones is only an inch taller, he’ll have a significant reach advantage over OSP. Of course, this also gives St. Preux his best chance of winning, but he’s not the boxer that Gustafsson is nor does he have the nuclear power that Anthony Johnson possesses.
My gut instinct is that Jones is going to try and make a statement. And the most crowd-pleasing way to do it is with his flashy standup. He is a far more skilled striker than OSP and should be able to showcase his full arsenal of kicks, knees, elbows and spinning attacks.
THE SMART PLAYS
Obviously, Bones to win at -400 is the safest play. But if you’re looking to maximize your earnings, consider the under on 2.5 rounds at -220. After all Jones has been through, with his suspension, subsequent tsk-tsking by every single media outlet, and the stripping of his belt, the dude is probably ready to unleash a hellstorm on his next opponent. You’ve got to be a little bit afraid for OSP.
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Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC 197 takes place on Saturday, April 23, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view.
