When it comes to classic grappler vs. brawler style matchups, it doesn’t get better than this Saturday’s bout between Brazilian jiu-jitsu master Demian Maia and Tazmanian devil Matt Brown.
Right now, oddsmakers are favoring Maia’s technique over Brown’s pressure -- and it’s not very close.
Bet on UFC 198 odds at BookMaker.eu
Demian Maia -280
Matt Brown +230
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A few weeks ago, Maia was an even bigger favorite at -425 with Matt Brown at +320. Although his line has moved up over 100 points, Maia is still a hefty favorite and I wouldn’t be surprised if a late surge drives his line deeper into the chalk. If you were planning to bet Maia, now would be the time to pull the trigger.
THE STAKES
Maia has quietly won four straight, with his last two coming against quality opponents in Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson. Although he’s squarely in the upper tier of a top-heavy welterweight division, he’s still on the outside looking in at a title show, behind guys like Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald and Stephen Thompson. A win keeps him “in the mix”, with the potential of a title eliminator in the near future.
Brown has lost two of his past three, although those losses came against champion Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. Still, he’s fallen a long way since his seven-fight winning streak that capped off a stunning career resurgence. Another loss could precipitate a fall out of the top 10.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
We all know exactly what Maia wants to do. He glues himself to opponents, drags them to ground, and ties them into knot. Rinse, repeat. It’s the same game plan that many elite grapplers employ, but there’s nobody better at it than Maia. Considering how successful he’s been, there’s no reason for him to change his strategy.
If you polled all the fighters on the UFC roster about who the best jiu-jitsu practitioner is on the roster, you can bet that Maia would be in the top 3. But he’s evolved his game to the point where he’s much more than a pure BJJ guy. He’s an elite, fully fledged MMA grappler, with complex chain wrestling and a suffocating top game as well.
Brown is one of the most exciting fighters in the division -- an ultra-aggressive, high volume striker with a singular mission to beat the will out of his opponents. Trying to brawl with him is a futile endeavor, as his output and pace in unparalleled at 170. He is particularly deadly in the clinch, where he can utilize his knees and elbows in addition to his fists.
PREDICTION AND VALUE BETS
It’s hard to see this fight being any different from Maia’s last four fights. If the Brazilian can neutralize a superb athlete like Neil Magny, the less explosive Brown shouldn’t be too difficult to take down. And while “The Immortal” is active from the bottom, Maia has faced far better ground players. At -230, Maia is a solid play, though he’s a bit expensive.
The best value here is the over/under on 1.5 rounds at -170. That’s an extremely low round total for a guy like Maia, who takes his sweet time. Brown is competent enough on the ground not to get submitted right away, but he better get comfortable being on his back.
UFC odds: Demian Maia UD Matt Brown
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 198 takes place on Saturday, May 14 at the Arena de Baixada stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on Fox Sports 1.
