Beating a legend like Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a rite of passage for any young light heavyweight trying to join the elite ranks. And this Saturday, 26-year old Corey Anderson will try to earn his place among the division’s top tier in the Brazilian’s home country.
Bet on UFC 198 odds at BookMaker.eu
Corey Anderson -205
Mauricio Rua +175
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
THE STAKES
Ideally, Rua would notch a spectacular finish in Brazil and ride off into the retirement sunset. As a former champion, he doesn’t have anything left to prove and fights on a level far below what’s required of legitimate contenders. There’s been no talk from his camp about him hanging up the gloves, but with each additional loss -- and they’ve been piling up -- more and more media question whether he should retire.
For Anderson, Shogun is the signature victory that could secure a shot at the Ovince St. Preuxs of the world. “Beastin 25/8” clearly belongs in the division’s top tier, and the better he performs against Rua, the bigger his next fight will be.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Shogun is just 2-4 in his past six fights, and he was stopped in three of those losses. Though he’s 34, Rua has not aged well, and at times he fights like a fighter who’s 40. The multiple wars from his Hall-of-Fame career has quickly caught up to him, and he’s no longer physical marvel from his glory days in Pride FC.
He still has fight-ending power in his punches and devastating low kicks. A classic Muay Thai striker, Shogun’s textbook striking is still his calling card. However, his takedown defense is still subpar and his gas tank has shrunk considerably ever since he came to the UFC. The longer the fight goes, the older he looks.
Anderson is a fast-twitch athlete and one of the fastest 205ers on the roster. He is a wrestle-boxer who is rapidly evolving his game despite just nine pro fights. Working with Mark Henry, one of the most underrated trainers in the sport, Anderson has developed fantastic footwork and angles, with excellent instinctive takedowns. When he’s on top, he’s happy to plant himself in half-guard and pound away.
Also, he’s 26 in a division where most of the top fighters are squarely in their 30s. MMA is a young man’s sport, and youth is a weapon. Shogun has fought more than three times as many fights as Anderson, and the tread on his tires are noticeably thinning. By comparison, Anderson is as fresh as they come.
PREDICTION AND VALUE BETS
Poor Shogun. He needs fun, legend fights against older dudes like Dan Henderson. Instead, the old dog gets to fight a young wolf, setting him up for disaster. Given Anderson’s strength in wrestling and Rua’s weak takedown defense, it’s easy to see “Beastin’ 25/8” putting him on the ground and pounding him out for 15 minutes. Not a good look for a legend in his home country.
The best value here is Anderson to win at -205. The over on 2.5 rounds at -200 isn’t bad either, but given how quickly Rua gasses it’s hard to predict whether he can survive a sustained onslaught from the younger man.
UFC odds: Corey Anderson TKO Mauricio Rua, Round 3
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 198 takes place on Saturday, May 14 at the Arena de Baixada stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on Fox Sports 1.
