At age 45, Dan Henderson just won’t quit. Despite a 2-6 record in his last eight bouts, including three first-round knockout losses, the living legend will test his luck against a bona fide terror in Hector Lombard. This will not end well for one of the most distinguished fighters in MMA history.
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Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard
ODDS COMING SOON
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Of course Henderson is a huge underdog. He shouldn’t be fighting guys like Lombard anymore. Nothing in his last four fights indicates that he’s able to hang with the top guys in the middleweight division. Although Lombard lost in his first bout since serving a PEDs suspension, his all-out blitz against Neil Magny showed that he still has the power and aggression of an uncaged tiger.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Back in his heydey, Henderson was an elite wrestler with an iron chin and an atomic right hand. These days, he doesn’t have the strength to use his Olympic Greco-Roman wrestling background. And his chin is permanently cracked. Blows that he used smile at will send him reeling. But he’s still got a right hand that can put you to sleep.
His entire game is built on landing that one punch. Never a quick fighter to begin with, Hendo shuffles forward with his right hand cocked, goading opponents to attempt to hit a slow-moving target so he can counter. He offers not takedown threat anymore, nor is he spry or strong enough to defend against wrestlers.
Lombard is an Olympic medalist in judo, but you’d never guess it by the way he fights. This dude just wants to bang. His stocky stature and judo background makes him impossible to takedown, allowing him to commit fully to throwing punches to his heart’s content. And he doesn’t mess around with setup punches -- he gets right into the pocket and starts winging hooks.
However, Lombard’s hulking frame gives away his biggest weakness: cardio. He slows down noticeably from the second round, and he tends to tire himself out searching for a spectacular finish. If an opponent can survive the initial onslaught, Lombard becomes easy pickins’ in the second half of the fight.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
Henderson is done: there’s no other way to say it. He might be able to take out low-level guys, but an explosive athlete like Lombard is the worst matchup possible for the future Hall-of-Famer. Lombard can knock him out or take him out and pound him to fine powder. Unless you have absolute faith in Hendo landing his one weapon, stay far away from him.
The under also seems like a safe play as well. Henderson’s past three fights have ended in the first, and Lombard’s ultra aggressive style and knockout power gives this fight a high probability for an early finish.
UFC odds: Hector Lombard TKO Dan Henderson, Round 1
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