The last person to beat current bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz was Urijah Faber. But that was back in 2007 in the now-defunct WEC. He avenged the loss in 2011 in a fight that wasn’t very close, and now Cruz will have the opportunity to silence his longtime nemesis for good this Saturday. Let’s break down the odds for this trilogy fight.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker
Dominick Cruz -600
Urijah Faber +400
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -220, under +170
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The odds listed here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Cruz’ struggles with major injuries led to him fighting just twice in over four years, but it looked like he hadn’t missed a beat when he decisioned T.J. Dillashaw to reclaim the title this past January. If he’s truly back and healthy, it’s easy to see why he’s such a big favorite against Urijah Faber.
At 37, Faber is still a top fighter in his weight class, but his best days are behind him. The general thinking is that his title shot was granted because of his popularity rather than his accomplishments. The bantamweight division isn’t a big draw to begin with, so putting on a grudge match between its two most well-known stars makes sense from a marketing perspective.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
We all know who Faber is by now. An expert transitional fighter and a one-dimensional striker. His hyperactive fight style doesn’t just refer to his movement -- it applies to his level changes as well. If Faber isn’t cutting an angle, he’s feinting a takedown. All of this is is to get his opponent off balance so Urijah can lock up a takedown.
But when drawn into an extended striking match, Faber is painfully reliant on single strikes. He particularly loves the overhand right, but his left hook and front kick can quickly damage an opponent. Also, when Faber throws, he commits. Everything seems like it’s thrown with fight-ending intentions. He doesn’t have one-punch knockout power, but he can hurt you enough to leave you woozy and vulnerable to one of his lightning quick submissions.
Cruz’s style hasn’t changed at all in nearly 10 years, but thus far nobody has been able to figure it out. Like Faber, his offense is based on movement, but he has one of the most oddly distinct styles in the game. He is constantly leaping in and out with punches, and it’s impossible to characterize his style as anything but awkward.
His strange approach frustrates the hell out of opponents, as they’ll end up chasing him. That plays directly into his game. Cruz’s strength is his wrestling, and his awkward style is all an attempt to get fighters to lunge in so the champ can catch them off balance. On top, Cruz stays active, either looking to pass or finding opportunities to posture up and pound away.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
Faber is too old to pose much of a threat to Cruz. Even in his prime, Faber wasn’t fast enough to catch him nor could he take him down. What’s more, the wear and tear and Faber’s body is becoming apparent. Even against mid-tier opponents like Alex Caceres or Frankie Saenz, Faber struggled to pull out victories.
But Cruz’s line at -600 is extremely expensive. While he’s a safe play, I’d seriously consider the over on 4.5 rounds at -220. Five out of Cruz’s last six fights have gone to the final bell, and Faber is notoriously difficult to finish.
UFC odds: Dominick Cruz UD Urijah Faber
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