Dustin Poirier - 19-4, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs - will continue his march up the lightweight ladder against a dangeroug Bobby Green - 23-6, 8 KOs, 9 SUBs - this Saturday at UFC 199 in Los Angeles.
Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2014, Poirier has won three straight after moving up to 155 pounds. Let’s break down the odds and the fight.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Bobby Green +170
Dustin Poirier -220
Over 2.5 rounds, over -185, under +160
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis. What’s listed here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Poirier is more than a 2-to-1 favorite, with Green a clear underdog at +170. This might largely be due to Green’s inactivity -- the last time he stepped into the octagon was November 2014. In contrast, Poirier has fought and won three times during that span. Ring rust might be a factor, as Green has never been out of action for that long since turning pro.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Poirier is a lightweight-turned-featherweight-turned-lightweight, and he’s been in the UFC since 2011. Already a veteran of 14 octagon bouts, it’s easy to forget that Poirier is just 27 years old. He’s always been an above average athlete and a well-rounded fighter. In the past, Poirier would be easily baited into brawls, but he has become a much more patient, technical fighter over the years.
Green is an even better athlete than The Diamond. Though he was a decorated high school wrestler, Green makes no qualms about his preference to strike. He has good skills in all MMA facets, but he doesn’t put them all together quite as well as Poirier. At his best, he’s coming forward, pressuring his opponent with clean footwork and a steady array of strong kicks and punching combinations.
In this matchup, Poirier probably doesn’t want to stand up with Green for too long. While he’s a solid striker, occasional gaps in his defense give opponents huge opportunities to land huge shots. Poirier showed in his last bout against Joe Duffy -- a superb striker -- that he can switch to a wrestling-heavy approach if needed. He’ll want to do that against Green.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
I see a ton of value in Green as a +170 underdog. He’s ridiculously difficult to take down, and when he does get put on the mat he possesses fantastic hips to spring back up to his feet. If and when it becomes a kickboxing bout, I like Green’s speed and technique over Poirier’s savvy. Green does have issues when is pressured, but his quickness rarely allows for that. The pick is Green to score the upset by unanimous decision.
UFC odds: Bobby Green UD Dustin Poirier
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